Thursday, January 5, 2012

Chapter 3. Correlates and causes of post-1950 avoidable global mass mortality

Chapter 3. Correlates and causes of post-1950 avoidable global mass mortality

“Cry “Havoc”, and let slip the dogs of war.”

Mark Antony in Shakespeare, Julius Caesar 1

“The American people will not relish the idea of any American citizen growing rich and fat in an emergency of blood and slaughter and human suffering.”

Franklin Delano Roosevelt, radio broadcast, May 1940 2

“Ill fares the land, to hastening ills a prey, Where wealth accumulates, and men decay”

Oliver Goldsmith, The Deserted Village 3

“Ignorance is degrading only when found in company with riches.”

Schopenhauer, Essays: On Books and Reading 4

“About morals, what is moral is what you feel good after and what is immoral is what you feel bad after.”

Ernest Hemingway, Death in the Afternoon 5

3.1 “Big picture” regional analysis of global post-1950 under-5 infant mortality and excess mortality

Table 2.1 summarizes post-1950 excess mortality and under-5 infant mortality for the various regions of the world. The following Tables 2.1-2.12 provide detailed country-by-country mortality data together with complementary current information on present life expectancy, annual per capita income and adult literacy. We can now briefly examine the major regional differences with a view to identifying some major correlates and causes of the excess mortality holocaust.

In a sense everyone knows that the Third World has suffered a major burden of “poverty, war and disease” but, as discussed in the previous chapters, it is important to quantitate the human cost. Having calculated post-1950 excess mortality and under-5 infant mortality for essentially every country in the world, it has been possible to sum, group and organize the data to permit sensible analysis of this immense catastrophe. The following sections deal with post-1950 mortality in various regions of the world in order of increasing values of average post-1950 excess mortality/current population.

The regions in Table 2.1 are also listed in order of increasing post-1950 excess mortality/current population. However it will become glaringly obvious that the best mortality outcomes correlate with high annual per capita income, high adult literacy, lack of invasion by foreign powers and, for many such countries, a post-1950 record of occupying and invading other countries. Conversely, low annual per capita income, low adult literacy and a burden of occupation and war (universally with major First World involvement) correlates with a poor mortality outcome.

3.2 Overseas Europe: domestic democracy, prosperity, peace and Anglo-American invasion of distant lands

The best outcome region is “Overseas Europe” which includes Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Israel and the US (plus associated territories such as the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico that we will here conveniently subsume under the aegis of the US) and Canada. Inspection of the detailed information for this region (Table 2.2) reveals that these countries have the very high life expectancies (78-79 years), high annual per capita incomes ($15,870-$37,610) and the high adult literacy (~98%) found for the best-achieving countries in Western Europe. For the Western European countries the post-1950 excess mortality/2005 population ratio ranges from 1.0-3.6%% and the post-1950 under-5 infant mortality/2005 population ranges from 3.3-7.0%% (Table 2.2).

None of these “Overseas Europe” countries have been subject to invasion in the post-1950 period but have all been involved in invading and occupying other countries. There is an extraordinary and obscene contrast between the social profiles of these countries and the countries in which they have waged war in the post-1950 era: on the perpetrator side peace, democracy, prosperity and very low mortality – and, on the other side, horrendous mortality from which the victim countries are variously recovering.

3.3 Western Europe: domestic bliss and colonial and neo-colonial wars abroad

The Western Europe group of countries has high average mortality outcomes comparable to those of the Overseas Europe and these countries also exhibit high life expectancy (76-80 years ) and high adult literacy (92-~98%) together with high annual per capita incomes ($9,260-$43,940). The 4 poorest countries are (in ascending order of wealth) Malta, Portugal, Cyprus and Greece; these countries have relatively low per capita incomes ($9,260-$13,720) but exhibit high adult literacy (92-~98%) and high life expectancies (76-78 years). As we will discuss later, some non-European countries, notably Cuba, Fiji, Mauritius, the Maldives, Paraguay, Sri Lanka and Thailand have very low annual per capita incomes in the range of about $1,000-$2,000 but also have excellent excess mortality and under-5 infant mortality outcomes (Tables 2.2-2.12). For the Western European countries the post-1950 excess mortality/2005 population ratio ranges from 0-10.8% and the post-1950 under-5 infant mortality/2005 population ranges from 0.8%-5.7% (Table 2.3).

None of the Western European countries have been invaded by foreign powers in the post-1950 period but many have been involved in the occupation and invasion of distant countries in this period, the list including Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and the UK. Thus in the last decade, Germany, the Netherlands and the UK were involved with the NATO involvement in Balkans; Germany and the UK in Afghanistan; and Denmark, Iceland, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal and Spain sent military or other personnel to join the UK-US occupation of Iraq. The complicity of these countries in horrendous post-1950 mortality in the victim countries will be explored later.

3.4 Eastern Europe: totalitarianism, Russian occupation, general peace and low mortality

The Eastern European group of countries are somewhat worse off than the other European countries in relation to post-1950 excess mortality and under-5 infant mortality but much better off than the better non-European groupings. In general, the Eastern European countries have lower life expectancies (67-76 years) and much lower annual per capita incomes ($590-$11,830) than the other European countries; however adult literacy (85-~98%) is very high for all countries (~98%) other than Albania (85%), Bosnia and Herzegovina (93%) and Macedonia (96%). Slovenia (life expectancy 76 years, annual per capita income $11,830 and adult literacy ~98%) is the only country of this group with a “Western” level for all these three parameters as well as for post-1950 excess mortality/2005 population (1.6%) and post-1950 under-5 infant mortality/2005 population (1.9%) (Table 2.4).

In the Eastern European group of countries the post-1950 excess mortality/2005 population ratio ranges from 1.6-13.9% and the post-1950 under-5 infant mortality/2005 population ranges from 1.4-10.6%; the countries with the highest post-1950 excess mortality/2005 population ratios include Hungary (13.9%), Estonia (12.8%), Latvia (12.7%), the Ukraine (11.0%), the Czech Republic (10.6%) and Bulgaria (9.3%). The countries with the worst post-1950 under-5 infant mortality/2005 population ratios include Macedonia (10.6%), Armenia (9.5%), Bosnia and Herzegovina (9.4%) and Albania (6.7%), with the rest having values in the range 1.4% (the Czech Republic) to 5.9% (Serbia and Montenegro) (Table 2.4).

The “best” Eastern European countries (Croatia, Georgia, Lithuania, Moldavia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia and Montenegro, Slovakia and Slovenia) have post-1950 excess mortality/2005 population ratios ranging from 1.6-8.4% and post-1950 under-5 infant mortality/2005 population ratios ranging from 1.9-5.6%. The “worst” eastern European countries (Albania, Armenia, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia and Macedonia) have post-1950 excess mortality/2005 population ratios ranging from 3.0-13.9% the post-1950 under-5 infant mortality/2005 population ratios ranging from 1.4-10.6% (Table 2.4).

All of the East European countries (except for the Balkan countries) were occupied by the Soviet Union for most of the post-1950 era since the end of WW2 and Hungary and the Czech Republic were further violently invaded by the Soviet Union in 1956 and 1968, respectively. For most of this era only the Soviet Union (Russia) was involved in invasion and occupation of other countries. However in recent years many Eastern European countries joined the US in the illegal occupation of Iraq, namely Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Georgia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and the Ukraine.

3.5 Latin America and Caribbean: colonial and US hegemony – increased violence yields increased mortality

The Latin American plus Caribbean group (but excluding Haiti) has an overall profile resembling that of Eastern European but with lower life expectancy (64-~98 years), modest annual per capita income ($890-$14,290) and with generally much poorer adult literacy (64-~98%); Haiti stands out as the poorest performer with levels of these parameters (50 years, $380 and 50%, respectively) similar to those found in non-Arab Africa. The Latin American and Caribbean countries with the highest life expectancies are Cuba and Costa Rica (77 and 78 years, respectively); these countries have modest annual per capita incomes (~$1170 and $4280, respectively) but have adult literacy rates of 97% and 96%, respectively, and post-1950 excess mortality and infant mortality outcomes at a top Western European level (post-1950 under-5 infant mortality/2005 population ratios of 3.1% and 4.6%, respectively) (Table 2.5).

For the Latin American and Caribbean countries the post-1950 excess mortality/2000 population ratio range from 2.3% (Bahamas) and 3.3% (Argentina) to 32.9% (Bolivia) and 47.9% (Haiti); the post-1950 under-5 infant mortality/2005 population ratios range from 2.1% (French Guiana) and 3.1% (Cuba) to 20.1% (Bolivia) and 25.1% (Haiti) (Table 2.5).

Apart from Cuban advisers helping the Angolan government forces against US- and South African-backed forces, Honduran involvement in US-backed terrorism in Central America and token multinational participations in the US invasion of Grenada, none of the Latin American countries were involved in occupation of other countries until the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua joined the illegal US occupation of Iraq. In contrast, most of the Latin American and Caribbean countries have experienced acute US or Western European impositions since 1950, including explicit colonial occupation, foreign-backed dictatorships, terrorism, civil conflicts and other malignant, violent and human rights-abusive interference. There was explicit US military invasion of Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Grenada, Haiti and Panama in the post-1950 era as well as major US involvement in the Honduras-based Contra actions against Nicaragua. The Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua (all having suffered violent US impositions) provided forces to support the US occupation of Iraq.

3.6 East Asia: remarkable resurgence from European wars and sanctions

The decline in mortality in the East Asian region is a tremendous success story in the light of the pre-1950 devastation of defeated imperial Japan and the devastation of China by Japan and US-backed civil war. The post-1950 era saw massive military threat to China from both the US and the Soviet Union, sanctions applied to China by the US and its allies and the devastation of the Korean War. The population of China is so large and energetic that traditional violent colonial occupation was not an option for the US, this then allowing for economic recovery by China despite acute US hostility and economic exclusion for half of the post-1950 era.

China sent forces to support North Korea against the US, militarily occupied its Tibetan region, transiently invaded its neighbour India (except for continuing occupation of Ladakh) and had short-lived military exchanges with its neighbour Vietnam. However, apart from South Korean involvement in Vietnam and Iraq and Japanese and Mongolian participation in Iraq, there has been no invasion of distant lands by these countries.

Japan, Hong Kong and Taiwan have achieved Western European outcomes in relation to excess mortality and under-5 infant mortality. North Korea, South Korea and China have overall achieved a Latin American standard in the post-1950 era but South Korea and China have now bounded ahead. Resource-poor Mongolia, sandwiched between two powers subject to sustained US hostility and economic blockade for much of the post-1950 era, has done very poorly. A major feature in all of these countries has been high adult literacy but the lower life expectancies in China, North Korea and Mongolia correlate with very low annual per capita incomes.

For the East Asian countries the post-1950 excess mortality/2005 population ratio range from 1.7% (Hong Kong), 2.4% (Taiwan) and 2.8% (Japan) to 10.4% (South Korea), 11.8% (China), 12.9% (North Korea) and 24.0% (Mongolia); the post-1950 under-5 infant mortality/2005 population ratios range from 1.4% (Macao), 1.5% (Hong Kong), 1.9% (Japan) and 2.0% (Taiwan) to 6.4% (South Korea), 6.8% (North Korea), 11.9% (China) and 15.0% (Mongolia) (Table 2.6).

3.7 Turkey, Iran and Central Asia: European occupation, intervention and war

In the Turkey, Iran and Central Asia group of countries, Afghanistan (adult literacy 36% and life expectancy 43 years) stands out for appalling outcomes in all mortality-related indices. Turkey and Iran have somewhat better mortality indices but their adult literacy percentages are 85% and 76%, respectively, notwithstanding relatively high annual per capita incomes of $2,790 and $2,000, respectively. The former Soviet Union Central Asian republics have very high adult literacy (~98%) and have achieved the best under-5 infant mortalities in this group of countries, notwithstanding modest annual per capita incomes in the range of $190-$1,780 (Table 2.7).

For the Central Asian countries the post-1950 excess mortality/2005 population ratios range from 5.0% (Azerbaijan) and 6.4% (Kazakhstan) to 19.2% (Kyrgyzstan), 20.2% (Iran) and 64.0% (Afghanistan); the post-1950 under-5 infant mortality/2005 population ratios range from.8.9% (Uzbekistan) and 10.8% (Kazakhstan) to 15.0% (Turkey), 15.4% (Iran) and 44.3% (Afghanistan) (Table 2.7).

The Central Asian countries were occupied by the Russians until a decade ago and have generally been peaceful except for the Armenian-Azerbaijan conflict and civil conflict in Uzbekistan. US-backed Turkey has a very poor human rights record in the post-1950 era involving invasion of and occupation of part of Cyprus and horrendous, genocidal violence against Muslim Kurdish and Syriac Christian minorities; the prior, horrendous Armenian Genocide is officially denied and indeed it is now illegal to mention this matter in Turkey. Iran has had a heavy burden of violent US hostility and interference culminating in the bloody Iran-Iraq War. Afghanistan has had an appalling burden of civil war, Soviet invasion, further US-backed civil war and thence US invasion to oust the Taliban that is reflected in horrendous infant mortality and excess mortality statistics. Despite a long history of foreign invasion and occupation, some of the Central Asian countries have descended into the moral pit of invading non-contiguous, distant foreign lands, namely Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan through their contributions (albeit very modest) to the US Coalition of the Willing in Iraq and Uzbekistan, which provided the US with airforce base facilities.

3.8 Arab North Africa and the Middle East: decolonization, Anglo-American and Israeli wars and oil

The Arab countries of North Africa and the Middle East variously emerged from European colonial occupation or “protection” with pro-Western royal dictatorships that were thence transformed in some countries into more “representative” republican dictatorships. Independence was hard-won in the Algerian War of Independence from France that killed millions. Violent Western military intervention in these countries in the post-1950 era variously involved the highly-prosperous European-origin countries of the US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Israel and the prosperous Western European countries of Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain and the UK. A variety of countries have provided forces for the US Coalition of the Willing in Iraq, namely: Australia, the US (Overseas Europe), Denmark, Iceland, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal and Spain (Western Europe), Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Georgia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and the Ukraine (Eastern Europe), the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua (Central America), Japan, South Korea and Mongolia (East Asia), Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan (Central Asia), Philippines, Singapore and South Korea (South East Asia) and Tonga (the Pacific).

The intrinsically European Israeli colonization of Palestine and associated conflicts have involved successive wars over half a century between indigenous Arab states and colonial Israel. Israel has been in conflict with all of its immediate neighbours (Egypt, Jordan, Palestine, Lebanon and Syria) as well as having been involved in violent attacks on Iraq (bombed), Libya (shooting down of a civilian airliner), Tunisia (bombing) and Uganda (military raid). Inspection of the excess mortality and under-5 infant mortality in the Arab world reveals the horrendous cost of First World colonization, imperialism and militarism. Of course, Western hysteria notwithstanding, no Arab states have invaded, attacked or otherwise violently engaged any non-contiguous countries in the post-1950 period.

An interesting exercise to delineate factors contributing to post-1950 avoidable mortality in the Arab world involves dissecting out (1) the oil-rich, high income Gulf State Western “protectorates” of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, (2) the “disaster areas” of Iraq, Sudan and Yemen and (3) the rest. For the Arab Gulf States (excluding US-afflicted Iraq) the post-1950 under-5 infant mortality/2005 population ratio ranges from 1.5-9.5% and the post-1950 excess mortality/population ratio ranges from 2.8-11.9%; for the “disaster areas” these ratios range from 13.0-23.9% and 19.9-38.4%, respectively; and for “the rest”, these ratios range from 5.8-17.7% and 11.0-26.5%, respectively (Table 2.8).

However, when one inspects the average life expectancy, annual per capita income and adult literacy of these three regions we see that the Gulf States have range values of 72-77 years, $7,830-$18,060 and 76-94%, respectively; the “disaster areas” 56-61 years, $460-$2,170 and 39-58%, respectively; and “the rest” 69-74 years, $1,390-$5,540 and 49-~98%, respectively.

The mortality-related statistics for the horribly-abused and resource-poor Occupied Palestinian Territories are quite good in the given circumstances - post-1950 infant mortality/2005 population 7.7%, post-1950 excess mortality/2005 population 17.7%, life expectancy 73 years, annual per capita income $1,100 and adult literacy ~98%. Thus high literacy and a very modest income can still yield a reasonable life expectancy and an under-5 infant mortality of the same order as that found in the European Balkans. However the outcomes are inferior to what obtains in “good” non-European countries.

In contrast, the oil-rich states have done well in relation to mortality and annual per capita income if not in relation to adult literacy (this latter deficit reflecting entrenched sexism). The Gulf States mortality success associated with peace and wealth has not been translated into democracy, universal literacy and equal options for women. Indeed the one Arab country that made the greatest strides in relation to women’s rights, namely Iraq, has been violently crippled over the last 15 years by the ostensibly liberal, egalitarian and feminist-tolerant Anglo-American democracies. The ultimate “right” of a woman, the survival of her offspring, has been lost in US-UK-occupied Iraq - what is potentially one of the richest countries in the world has been wrecked with a concomitant appalling under-5 infant mortality totalling 1.5 million since the West returned to Iraq with sanctions and total war in 1990.

3.9 South East Asia – European-imposed colonialism, occupation, war and militarism

South East Asia further illustrates the correlation of horrendous First World-imposed violence on excess mortality and infant mortality. In the post-1950 period all South East Asian countries except Thailand and the Philippines experienced the tail-end of extended periods of colonial occupation by European countries, namely the UK, France, the Netherlands and Portugal. All South East Asian countries except for Brunei, Thailand and Singapore have experienced substantial European-supplied military violence, this variously involving civil war, local insurgencies or horrendous foreign invasion, occupation and prolonged violence.

In relation to avoidable mortality, the South East Asian countries can be conveniently grouped into the Western European-like countries (Brunei and Singapore), Eastern European-like (Malaysia, Thailand and Philippines) and unambiguously Third World countries (the rest). These categories clearly illustrate the impact of war on mortality as outlined below.

The Western European-like countries of oil-rich Brunei and highly entrepreneurial, urban Singapore have annual per capita incomes of ~$24,100 and $21,230, respectively; life expectancies of 76 and 78, respectively; and adult literacy of 92%. These countries have adult literacy less than that in Western European countries and slightly lower life expectancies. Both Brunei and Singapore have escaped the Anglo-American-prosecuted post-1950 wars in the region and indeed have profited commercially from them. The post-1950 excess mortality/2005 population ratios for Brunei and Singapore are 5.3% and 2.6%, respectively, while the post-1950 under-5 infant mortality/2005 population ratios are 2.9% and 1.4%, respectively (Table 2.9).

The Eastern European-like group of countries have substantially evaded war for most of the post-1950 period - thus Malaysia suffered colonial rule, the Malaysian Emergency and Confrontation with Indonesia; Thailand suffered repeated but relatively benign military coups by US-armed and trained military; Philippines suffered coups by US-armed and trained military and sustained, albeit relatively localized, Muslim separatist insurgency. This is reflected in an under-5 infant mortality/present population range of 4.6-8.5%, an annual per capita income range of $1,080-$3,780, life expectancies of 69-73 years and adult literacies in the range 87-96%. The post-1950 excess mortality/2005 population ratios for Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand are 9.3%, 11.0% and 5.9%, respectively, while the post-1950 under-5 infant mortality/2005 population ratios are 4.6%, 8.0% and 8.5%, respectively.

The remainder of the South East Asian group are “typical” Third World countries that have experienced the violence of European colonialism and of post-colonial European-imposed and European-supplied war - Myanmar (violent military dictatorship, civil war), Laos (US Indochina War, continuing insurgency), Cambodia (US Indochina War, genocide by the Khmer Rouge), Vietnam (war of independence against the French, US Indochina war, post-war US sanctions), Indonesia (US-backed military coup, 4 decades of corrupt, violent, Anglo-American-supported military dictatorship) and Timor-Leste (US-backed Indonesian invasion and horrendous genocide of 0.2 million East Timorese). The mortality-related statistics for this war-ravaged group of countries are appalling – post-1950 excess mortality/2005 population ratios of 28.7-81.0%; post-1950 under-5 infant mortality/2005 population ratios of 10.6-27.5%; an annual per capita income range of $310-$610, life expectancies of 50-69 years and adult literacy in the range 65-93%.

Vietnam provides a remarkable example of post-war resilience: under-5 infant mortality/present population ratio 10.6%, an annual per capita income of $480, life expectancy 69 years and an adult literacy of 93%. The example of Vietnam again shows that war-ravaged countries can achieve survival miracles in the face of long-term Western hostility with a combination of high adult literacy, modest annual per capita income and commitment to good primary health care and education.

3.10 The Pacific- mixed colonial occupation and post-colonial outcomes

With the exceptions of French New Caledonia, French Polynesia and various US-linked territories, the Pacific island states and New Guinea emerged from colonial occupation in the post-1950 era. The Pacific countries considered in this analysis can be put into 2 major categories in relation to excess mortality and under-5 infant mortality outcomes, namely the “good” and the “bad”.

The good outcome countries include Fiji (a former UK colony), US-linked Guam and Micronesia and the French “overseas” territories of French Caledonia and French Polynesia. The mortality-related statistics for this “good” group are as follows: post-1950 under-5 infant mortality/2005 population ratios from 1.3-6.6%; annual per capita incomes of $2,090 and $2,360 for Micronesia and Fiji, respectively; life expectancies of 69-70 years; and adult literacy in the range 93-~98% (Table 2.10). Fiji has a substantial business- and professionally-oriented Indian population; the US-linked states have benefited economically from US military and other strategic expenditures; and the French dependencies have benefited economically from French military expenditure and French colonists. Inter-racial strife in Fiji and independence-related troubles in the French territories have ostensibly produced few casualties.

The bad outcome countries (former colonial masters into the post-1950 era in parenthesis) include the Melanesian states of the Solomon Islands (UK), Vanuatu (UK and France) and Papua New Guinea (Australia) and the Polynesian states of Tonga (UK) and Samoa (New Zealand). Taken together, these poor outcome countries have the following mortality-related statistics – post-1950 excess mortality/2005 population ratios of 9.9-35.1%; post-1950 under-5 infant mortality/2005 population ratios of 7.1-18.9%; annual per capita incomes of $510-$1,600; life expectancies of 58-70 years; and adult literacy in the range 64-~98% (Table 2.10). Civil strife has occurred in the Melanesian states, of which the most costly in human lives was the attempted secession of Bougainville from Papua New Guinea (about 10,000 deaths, mostly from disease and ultimately due to civil disruption and deprivation).

3.11 South Asia – crippled by the legacies from British imperialism

The South Asian countries were granted independence from Britain in the immediate post-war years. Bhutan and Nepal were left as impoverished feudal societies with this situation degenerating into sustained, continuing civil war in the case of Nepal. India and Pakistan were left as impoverished, mutually-hostile societies as the outcome of British divide-and-rule policies favouring Muslim separatism. Partition, Partition atrocities, repeated war over Kashmir and communal violence have contributed to hugely expensive, First World-supplied military hostility that has now become a nuclear stand-off. Post-Partition Hindu West Bengal and Muslim Bangladesh recovered demographically after the horrendous World War 2 Bengal Famine (4 million victims) that the British have generally rubbed out of their history books. Bangladesh was borne out of the genocidal and anti-democratic intervention of the US-backed West Pakistan military in 1971.

The Maldives (tiny but strategically used by the UK) and Sri Lanka (democratic and well-administered but with sustained Tamil versus Sinhalese civil war) have had the best outcomes in South Asia with Eastern European mortality-related statistics – post-1950 excess motality/2005 population ratios of 4.4% and 4.9%, respectively; post-1950 under-5 infant mortality/2005 population ratios of 3.6% and 7.2%, respectively; life expectancies of 68 and 73 years; annual per capita incomes of $2,300 and $930; and adult literacy of 97% and 92%, respectively (Table 2.11).

The poor outcome remainder of the South Asian nations have a surprisingly consistent set of mortality-related statistics - post-1950 excess motality/2005 population ratios of 30.8-33.6%; post-1950 under-5 infant mortality/2005 population ratios from 18.2-25.0%; per capita incomes of $240-$660; life expectancies of 60-64 years; and adult literacy in the range 40-57% (Table 2.11). These very poor mortality outcomes correlate with a combination of low annual per capita income and low adult literacy.

3.12 Non-Arab Africa – colonialism, neo-colonialism, corruption, militarism, war and HIV-1

The post-1950 excess mortality and under-5 infant mortality for non-Arab Africa totals about 0.3 billion and 0.2 billion, respectively. This worst mortality region in the world suffered centuries of brutal colonial occupation that ostensibly came to an end in the post-1950 era. However explicit colonial occupation was variously replaced (after bloody wars of independence in many cases) by corrupt and incompetent client régimes, militarization, debt, economic exclusion, malignant interference, inter-country wars and ethnically-, tribally- and Cold War-based civil wars. The First World had a major role in these post-colonial impositions with the major players being the UK, US, France, Belgium, Portugal, Spain, Russia and the White minority-ruled countries of South Africa and Southern Rhodesia.

The outstanding countries with Eastern European-style mortality-related statistics are the tiny, peaceful and prosperous Indian Ocean island countries of Réunion and Mauritius with post-1950 excess motality/2005 population ratios of 5.1% and 6.0%, respectively, and post-1950 under-5 infant mortality/2005 population ratios of 5.3% and 6.3%, respectively. Mauritius has a life expectancy of 72 years, an annual per capita income of $4,090 and an adult literacy of 85% (Table 2.12).

A further set of countries with some glimmerings of hope include Botswana, Cape Verde, Comoros, Gabon, Ghana, Sao Tome and Principe and South Africa with post-1950 excess motality/2005 population ratios of 20.5-36.7%, post-1950 under-5 infant mortality/2005 population ratios of 10.2-19.5%, life expectancies of 39-70 years, annual per capita incomes of $320-$3,580 and adult literacy of 56-85%. These too have been relatively peaceful countries (Table 2.12).

The remaining majority of non-Arab African countries have very poor mortality-related statistics - post-1950 excess motality/2005 population ratios of 23.1-85.2%, post-1950 under-5 infant mortality/2005 population ratios of 13.8-53.3%, life expectancies of 33-54 years, per capita incomes of $90-$3,430 and adult literacy of 16-89% (Table 2.12). Some of these countries have been relatively peaceful but many have been ravaged by colonial wars or post-colonial civil wars. Such conflicts will be detailed in the country-by-country analysis in Chapter 7.

The scourge of HIV-1 infection in sub-Saharan Africa has massively perturbed the mortality outcomes and our ability to make sense of key mortality-inducing factors. In sub-Saharan Africa in 2005 there were 3 million newly-infected HIV victims – 64% of the total number of new infections for the whole world. Thus Botswana, Namibia, Swaziland and Zimbabwe have post-1950 excess mortality/2005 population ratios of 24.6-43.3%, post-1950 under-5 mortality/2005 population ratios of 13.1-21.4%, annual per capita incomes of ~$480-$3,430, adult literacy of 77-89% and life expectancies of only 33-44 years (Table 2.12).

3.13 To be or not to be - lowest mortality countries invading distant high mortality countries

As outlined above, a major difference between “good” and “bad” mortality outcome countries lies in the patterns of major, violent military involvement by these countries since 1950 with distant and contiguous combatants. The distinction between distant and contiguous countries is useful since it is difficult to avoid some conflict with immediate neighbours. These military involvements are summarized below for alphabetically-listed countries within the various regional groupings (arranged in order of post-1950 infant mortality/2005 population ratio). Involvements with contiguous countries are (marked below with an asterisk (*). The countries are conveniently grouped into (a) European and (b) non-European countries.

(a) European countries

i. Overseas Europe

No countries in this lowest mortality group have ever been significantly invaded and all have been repeatedly involved during the post-1950 era in the invasion, occupation or attack on forces of distant lands.

Australia – Afghanistan, China (Korean War), Indochina (Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia), Indonesia (Confrontation), Iraq, Korea, Malaysia, Nauru, Papua New Guinea*, Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste

Canada - Afghanistan, China (Korean War), Iraq, Korea

New Zealand – China (Korean War), Indochina (Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia), Indonesia (Confrontation), Iraq, Korea, Malaysia, Samoa, Timor-Leste, Tokelau

Israel - Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Occupied Palestinian Territories, Tunisia, Uganda, US (deliberate attack on USS Liberty)

US – Afghanistan, Bosnia-Herzegovina, China (Korean War), Colombia, Cuba, Diego Garcia, Dominican Republic, Germany, Grenada, Guam, Haiti, Indochina (Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia), Iraq, Iran, Japan, Korea, Kuwait, Liberia, Libya, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Panama, Philippines, Somalia and Serbia-Montenegro plus world-wide involvement in other violence (e.g. the Honduras-based Contra terrorism against Nicaragua) and military bases in numerous countries throughout the world.

ii. Western Europe

Western European like Overseas European countries have very low infant mortalities and excess mortalities coupled with very high life expectancies, annual per capita incomes and adult literacy outcomes. However there is now a “mixed” result in relation to military action against combatants in distant countries.

Belgium – Congo (Zaire), Rwanda, Urundi

Denmark – Greenland, Iraq

France – Afghanistan, Algeria, Benin, Burkina Faso, Cambodia, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Congo (Brazzaville), Cote d’Ivoire, Djibouti, Equatorial Guinea, French Guiana, French Polynesia, Gabon, Guadeloupe, Guinea, Haiti, Laos, Madagascar, Mali, Martinique, Mauritania, Morocco, New Caledonia, Niger, Pondicherry, Réunion, Senegal, Togo, Vanuatu, Vietnam

Germany – Afghanistan, Serbia (Balkans)

Iceland - Iraq

Italy – Iraq

Netherlands – Indonesia, Iraq, Aruba, Netherlands Antilles, Suriname, West New Guinea

Norway - Iraq

Portugal – Angola, Goa, Iraq, Macao, Mozambique, Cape Verde, Sao Tome and Principe, Timor-Leste

Spain – Equatorial Guinea, Iraq, Morocco, Western Sahara

United Kingdom – Afghanistan, Argentina, Bahamas, Bahrain, Barbados, Belize, Botswana, Brunei, China (Korean War), Diego Garcia, Egypt, Fiji, Gambia, Ghana, Guyana, Hong Kong, Indonesia (Confrontation), Iraq, Jamaica, Kenya, Kiribati, Korea (North & South), Kuwait, Lesotho, Malaysia, Maldives, Malta, Mauritius, Nigeria, Oman, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Serbia, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Singapore, Solomon Islands, Sudan, Tanzania, Trinidad & Tobago, Tonga, Tuvalu, United Arab Emirates, Vanuatu, Yemen

To their immense credit, Austria, Finland, Greece, Ireland, Luxembourg, Malta, Sweden and Switzerland stayed home (although one could cast a jaundiced eye over Swiss banking of the ill-gotten gains of corrupt régimes around the world).

iii. Eastern Europe

The Eastern European countries were nearly all dominated by the former Soviet Union since the end of World War 2 (exceptions being Albania and the countries of the former Yugoslavia). Armenia and Georgia, formerly Soviet-ruled countries with a Christian tradition, have been conveniently included in this group. The Eastern European group does significantly worse than the other European groupings with respect to post-1950 excess mortality, post-1950 under-5 infant mortality, annual per capita income and life expectancy but nevertheless on average does much better than the best of the non-European group, namely Latin America and the Caribbean. Adult literacy in Eastern Europe is on a par with that in the West.

Notwithstanding their bad “press” in the West, these countries, apart from Russia, have a fairly mild record of imperialism and military adventurism compared to that of Overseas Europe and Western Europe. Indeed, apart from Russia’s extensive record of occupation (Eastern Europe and Central Asia), invasion (Afghanistan) and re-invasion (Hungary, Czechoslovakia and Chechnya), Armenia’s spat with Azerbaijan and the civil war in the former Yugoslavia (that Slovenia very sensibly bought its way out of), the only other Eastern European military adventures are the involvements of all of these countries – except for Armenia, Byelorussia, Russia, Serbia and Slovenia - in the occupation of Iraq. In their involvement in Iraq the Czechs, Moldovans, Poles, Slovaks and Ukrainians conveniently forgot their occupations by Nazi Germany and Communist Russia and the Bulgarians, Estonians, Hungarians, Latvians, Lithuanians and Romanians equally shamefully emulated their earlier collaboration with Nazi German militarism.

Albania - Iraq

Armenia – Azerbaijan*

Azerbaijan – Iraq

Bosnia-Herzegovina - Iraq

Bulgaria – Iraq

Czech Republic – Iraq

Estonia - Iraq

Georgia - Iraq

Hungary – Iraq

Latvia – Iraq

Lithuania - Iraq

Macedonia – Iraq

Moldova - Iraq

Poland – Iraq

Romania - Iraq

Russia – Afghanistan*, Armenia*, Azerbaijan*, Belarus*, Bulgaria*, Czech Republic*, Estonia*, Georgia*, Germany (East)*, Hungary*, Latvia*, Lithuania*, Moldova*, Mongolia*, Poland*, Romania*, Serbia-Bosnia-Herzegovina*, Slovakia* (plus extensive military aid to combatants in Africa and Asia)

Slovakia - Iraq

Ukraine – Iraq

Notable are the obscene involvements in distant Iraq of most newly independent Eastern European countries in Iraq. Armenia fought over territory with its neighbour Azerbaijan. While the USSR provided arms for many Third World countries or liberation movements, Russia confined its direct military involvements or threats of such attacks to its contiguous post-war subjects and to Afghanistan.

Belarus, Croatia, Romania, Slovakia, Serbia & Montenegro and Slovenia did not even invade their neighbours (although Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, Serbia-Montenegro were involved in a complex civil war involving horrible war crimes).

(b) Non-European countries

We can now turn to countries in the non-European world to see what extent these typically very poor countries have emulated the active militarism of the European powers over the last half century. Many of these violent non-European countries have suffered civil wars (with major First World complicity) and have been ruled by violent dictators (of whom many were assisted in their rise to power by First World powers). Apart from the US-inspired Iraq involvements listed below, in most cases the international involvements of non-European countries have typically involved major military actions in immediately neighbouring countries and variously involved some very short to longer term occupations of contiguous foreign lands (marked thus: *) as detailed below.

iv. Latin America and the Caribbean

Argentina – Falkland Islands* (UK)

Dominican Republic - Iraq

El Salvador – Iraq

Honduras – Iraq, Nicaragua* (via the Contras)

Nicaragua – Iraq

In addition, a number of Caribbean states sent token forces to assist the US occupation of Grenada.

v. East Asia

China – India*, Korea*, Vietnam*

Japan - Iraq

South Korea – Iraq, Vietnam

vi. Arab North Africa and Middle East

Iraq – Iran*, Kuwait*

Libya - Chad

Morocco – Western Sahara*

Syria – Lebanon*

vii. Turkey, Iran & Central Asia

Azerbaijan – Iraq

Iran – Iraq*

Kazakhstan – Iraq

Turkey – Cyprus*, Korea

viii. South East Asia

Indonesia – Malaysia*, Timor-Leste*

Philippines – Iraq, Vietnam

ix. Pacific

Tonga - Iraq

x. South Asia

India – Pakistan*

Pakistan – Bangladesh (East Pakistan)*, India*

xi. Non-Arab Africa

Eritrea – Ethiopia*

Ethiopia – Eritrea*

Mauritania – Western Sahara*

South Africa –Angola, Botswana*, Lesotho*, Mozambique*, Namibia*, Zambia*, Zimbabwe*

Southern Rhodesia –Mozambique*, Zambia*

Tanzania – Uganda*

Uganda – Tanzania*

Finally it must be noted that a number of cross-border military incursions have occurred involving neighbouring countries in non-Arab Africa, notably in West Africa and variously involving Angola, Congo (Zaire), Liberia, Rwanda, Sierra Leone and Zambia.

3.14 Quantitative assessment of the mortality consequences of occupation

Already we can see from the above analysis that major countries in the “best outcome” European group have variously been very busy over the last half century occupying, invading or otherwise fighting with combatants from a variety of distant countries around the world. Adding the excess mortality or infant mortality tolls of victim countries can give us a quantitative measure of the complicity of these countries in the global post-1950 excess mortality and under-5 infant mortality.

It is difficult to assess the degree of complicity and culpability. Thus a getaway driver may not be directly responsible for acts of violence in a bank robbery but is nevertheless complicit – and the greater the number of such occurrences and the greater the human cost the greater the degree culpability. Further, the period of impact of invasion, war and occupation can extend to well after cessation of such impositions (as seen in the generally disastrous mortality statistics of the post-colonial Third World) and the actual involvement of the First World in global mass mortality extends well beyond mere military violence against billions of unarmed civilians and poorly armed opponents and also includes arms supply, militarization, malignant interference, debt and economic exclusion. Indeed the period prior to invasion is likely to be dangerous for human survival as the victim country uses scarce resources to meet a building threat (an extreme example of this being the appalling suffering of the Iraqis under sanctions between 1990, when they commenced, and the final actual invasion in 2003).

The invasion and occupation of any country is typically associated with (1) prior coveting, threat and interference by the prospective Occupier, who is accordingly complicit in bad mortality outcomes in the pre-invasion period; (2) violent occupation involving explicit responsibility by the Occupier for any associated avoidable mortality (excess mortality) as clearly set out in the Geneva Conventions; and (3) a post-occupation period typically involving recovery of a shattered country with continuing malignant interference from the former Occupier. Massive evidence for the continuing post-occupation impact of occupation is provided by appalling avoidable mortality outcomes in a swathe of victim countries in the non-European world. Accordingly in assessing complicity in and responsibility for avoidable mortality associated with violent occupation of countries we need to consider all three phases.

As detailed in Chapters 2-7, the post-1950 avoidable mortality has totalled 1.3 billion for the world, 1.2 billion for the non-European World and 0.6 billion for the Muslim world – and there has been major First World complicity in this catastrophe. Using our guide of considering all three phases of occupation, we can obtain quantitative, upper limit estimates of the post-1950 occupation-related avoidable mortality associated with specific, substantial, non-transient, violent occupations in which particular countries were the major occupiers in the post-WW2 era. Occupations of the Falkland Islands (Malvinas), Germany, Japan, Kashmir, Kosovo and Ladakh are ignored for realistic simplicity as are many peace-keeping military involvements (including the recently-terminated Syrian presence in Lebanon), post-independence conflicts over the Western Sahara, many massive covert and overt US military involvements around the world, notably in Latin America, Africa and Asia (e.g. the US-backed coup, military dictatorship and mass murder in Chile (1975-1989) and US bases in scores of countries).

This summary data provided below is of post-1950 excess mortality/ 2005 population (both in millions, m) and expressed as a percentage (%); this ratio is given for each major Occupier, for each country occupied and as a total for all the countries subject to a particular Occupier. The asterisk (*) below indicates a major occupation by more than one country in the post-WW2 era (thus I have listed only the UK and the US as major occupiers of Afghanistan, Iraq and Korea, leaving aside the many other minor participants in these conflicts).

Australia [0.587m/20.092m = 2.9%] - Papua New Guinea [2.091m/5.959m = 35.1%], Solomon Islands* [0.050m/0.504m = 9.9%], total = 2.141m/6.463m = 33.1%

Belgium [0.749m/10.359m = 7.2%] - Burundi [4.097m/7.319m = 56.0%], Congo (Zaire) [26.677m/56.079m = 47.6%], Rwanda [5.190m/8.607m = 60.3%], total = 35.964m/72.005m = 49.9%

Ethiopia* [36.133m/74.189m = 48.7%] - (Eritrea* [1.757m/4.456m = 39.4%], total = 1.757m/4.456m = 39.4%

France [3.275m/60.711m = 5.4%] - Algeria [7.167m/32.877m =21.8%], Benin [3.267m/7.103m = 46.0%], Burkina Faso [6.810m/13.798m = 49.4%], Cambodia* [5.852m/14.825m = 39.5%], Cameroon* [6.669m/16.564m = 40.3%], Central African Republic [2.274m/3.962m =57.4%], Chad [5.085m/9.117m = 55.8%], Comoros [0.204m/0.812m =25.1%], Congo (Brazzaville) [1.085m/3.921m = 27.7%], Côte d’Ivoire [6.953m/17.165m = 40.5%], Djibouti [0.265m/0.721m = 36.8%], Egypt* [19.818m/74.878m = 26.5%], French Guiana [0.010m/0.187m = 5.3%], French Polynesia [0.018m/0.252m = 7.1%], Gabon [0.504m/1.375m = 36.7%], Guadeloupe [0.025m/0.446m = 5.6%], Guinea [5.185m/8.788m = 59.0%], Haiti* [4.089m/8.549m = 47.9%], Laos* [2.653m/5.918m = 44.8%], Madagascar [7.098m/18.409m = 38.6%], Mali [6.808m/13.829m = 49.2%], Martinique [0.022m/0.397m = 5.5%], Mauritania [1.294m/3.069m = 42.2%], Mauritius [0.064m/1.244m = 5.18], Morocco* [8.202m/31.564m = 26.0%], New Caledonia [0.017m/0.237m = 7.2%], Niger [6.558m/12.873m = 50.9%], Réunion [0.047m/0.777m = 6.0%], Senegal [4.457m/9.393m = 47.5%], Syria* [2.198m/18.650m = 11.8%], Togo [1.950m/5.129m = 38.0%], Tunisia [1.582m/10.042m =15.8%], Vanuatu* [0.037m/0.222m = 16.7%], Vietnam* [24.015m/83.585m = 28.7%], total = 142.291m/430.678m = 33.0%

Indonesia [71.521m/225.313 = 31.7%] - Timor Leste* [0.694m/0.857m = 81.0%] - total = 0.694m/0.857m = 81.0%

Iraq* [5.283m/26.555m = 19.9%] - Kuwait* [0.089m/2.671m = 3.3%], total = 0.089m/2.671m = 3.3%

Israel [0.095m/6.685m =1.4%] - Egypt* [19.818m/74.878m = 26.5%], Jordan* [0.630m/5.750m = 11.0%], Lebanon [0.535m/3.761m = 14.2%], Occupied Palestinian Territories* [0.677m/3.815m = 17.7%], Syria* [2.198m/18.650m = 11.8%], total = 23.858m/106.854 = 22.3%

Netherlands [0.0m/16.300m = 0%] - Indonesia [71.521m/225.313m = 31.7%], Netherlands Antilles [0.009m/0.224m = 3.9%], Suriname [0.039m/0.442m = 8.8%], total = 71.569m/225.979 = 31.7%

New Zealand [0.143m/3.932m = 3.6%] - Samoa [0.039m/0.182m = 21.4%], total = 0.039m/0.182m = 21.4%

Pakistan* [49.700m/161.151m = 30.8%] - Bangladesh*[51.196m/152.593m = 33.6%], total = 51.196m/152.593m = 33.6%

Portugal [0.429m/10.080m = 4.3%] - Angola [9.207m/14.533m = 63.4%], Cape Verde [0.099m/0.482m = 20.5%], Guinea-Bissau [0.945m/1.584m = 59.7%], Macao [0.036m/0.472m = 7.6%], Mozambique [12.462m/19.495m = 63.9%], São Tome and Príncipe [0.039m/0.169m = 23.1%], Timor Leste*[0.694m/0.857m = 81.0%], total = 23.482m/37.592 = 62.5%

Russia [11.897m/141.553m = 8.4%] - Afghanistan [16.609m/25.971m = 64.0%], Armenia [0.091m/3.043m = 3.0%], Azerbaijan [0.428m/8.527m = 5.0%], Belarus [0.375m/9.809m = 3.8%], Bulgaria [0.769m/7.763m = 9.9%], Czech Republic [1.087m/10.216m = 10.6%], Estonia [0.166m/1.294m = 12.8%], Georgia [0.281m/5.026m = 5.6%], Hungary [1.363m/9.784m = 13.9%], Kazakhstan [0.983m/15.364m = 6.4%], Kyrgyzstan [1.041m/5.278m = 19.7%], Latvia [0.288m/2.265m = 12.7%], Lithuania [0.143m/3.401m = 4.2%], Moldova [0.254m/4.259m = 6.0%], Mongolia [0.640m/2.667m = 24.0%], Poland [0.677m/38.516m = 1.8%], Romania [1.133m/22.228m = 5.1%], Slovakia [0.130m/5.411m = 2.4%], Tajikistan [0.924m/6.356m = 14.5%], Turkmenistan [0.817m/5.015m = 16.3%], Ukraine [5.279m/47.782m = 11.0%], Uzbekistan [3.585m/26.868m = 13.3%], total = 37.063m/266.843m = 13.9%

South Africa [13.534m/45.323m = 29.9%] - Namibia [0.672m/2.032m = 33.1%], total =

0.672m/2.032m = 33.1%

Spain [1.049m/41.184m = 2.5%] - Equatorial Guinea [0.305m/0.521m = 58.5%], Morocco* [8.202m/31.564m = 26.0%], Western Sahara [0.063m/0.324m = 19.4%], total = 8.570m/32.409m = 26.4%

Turkey [10.488m/73.302m = 14.3%] – Cyprus [0.054m/0.813m = 6.6%], total = 0.054m/0.813m = 6.6%

UK [4.411m/59.598m = 7.4%] - Afghanistan* [16.609m/25.971m = 64.0%], Bahamas [0.007m/0.321m = 2.3%], Bahrain [0.054m/0.754m = 7.2%], Bangladesh* [51.196m/152.593m = 33.6%], Barbados [0.015m/0.272m = 5.5%], Belize [0.014m/0.266m = 5.3%], Bhutan [0.908m/2.392m = 38.0%], Botswana [0.443m/1.801m = 24.6%], Brunei [0.020m/0.374m = 5.3%], Cameroon* [6.669m/16.564m = 40.3%], Cyprus [0.054m/0.813m = 6.6%]; Egypt* [19.818m/74.878m = 26.5%], Eritrea* [1.757m/4.456m = 39.4%], Ethiopia [36.133m/74.189m = 48.7%], Fiji [0.054m/0.854m = 6.3%], Gambia [0.606m/1.499m = 47.6%], Ghana [6.089m/21.833m = 27.9%], Greece* [0.027m/10.978m = 0.2%], Grenada* [0.018m/0.121m = 14.9%], Guyana [0.086m/0.768m = 11.2%], Hong Kong [0.125m/7.182m = 1.7%], India [351.900m/1096.917m = 32.1%], Iraq* [5.283m/26.555m = 19.9%], Israel [0.095m/6.685 = 1.4%],

Jamaica [0.245m/2.701m =9.1%], Jordan* [0.630m/5.750m = 11.0%], Kenya [10.015m/32.849m = 30.5%], Korea* [7.958m/71.058m = 11.2%], Kuwait* [0.089m/2.671m = 3.3%], Lesotho [0.951m/1.797m =52.9%], Libya [0.785m/5.768m =13.6%], Malawi [6.976m/12.572m = 55.5%], Malaysia [2.344m/25.325m = 9.3%], Maldives [0.015m/0.338m = 4.4%], Malta [0.019m/0.397m = 4.8%], Myanmar [20.174m/50.696 = 39.8%], Nepal [10.650m/26.289m = 40.5%], Nigeria [49.737m/130.236m =38.2%], Occupied Palestinian Territories [0.677m/3.815m = 17.7%], Oman [0.359m/3.020m =11.9%], Pakistan [49.700m/161.151m = 30.8%], Qatar [0.029m/0.628m = 4.6%], Saint Lucia [0.012m/0.152m = 7.9%], Saint Vincent & Grenadines [0.018m/0.121m =14.9%], Sierra Leone [4.548m/5.340m = 85.2%], Singapore [0.113m/4.372m = 2.6%], Solomon Islands* [0.050m/0.504m = 48.5%], Somalia* [5.568m/10.742m =51.8%], Sri Lanka [0.951m/19.366m = 4.9%], Sudan [13.471m/35.040m = 38.4%], Swaziland [0.471m/1.087m = 43.3%], Tanzania [14.682m/38.365m =38.3%], Tonga [0.020m/0.106m = 18.9%], Trinidad & Tobago [0.052m/1.311m = 4.0%], Uganda [11.121m/27.623m = 40.3%], United Arab Emirates [0.087m/3.106m =2.8%], Vanuatu [0.037m/0.222m = 16.7%], Yemen [6.798m/21.480m = 31.6%], Zambia [5.463m/11.043m = 49.5%], Zimbabwe [4.653m/12.963m =35.9%], total = 727.448m/2247.711m = 32.4%

US [8.455m/300.038m = 2.8%] - Afghanistan* [16.609m/25.971m = 64.0%], Cambodia* [5.852m/14.825m = 39.5%], Dominican Republic [0.806m/8.998m = 9.0%], Federated States of Micronesia [0.016m/0.111m = 14.4%], Greece* [0.027m/10.978m = 0.2%], Grenada* [0.018m/0.121m = 14.9%], Guam [0.005m/0.168m = 3.0%], Haiti* [4.089m/8.549m = 47.9%], Iraq* [5.283m/26.555m = 19.9%], Korea* [7.958m/71.058m = 11.2%], Laos* [2.653m/5.918m = 44.8%], Panama [0.172m/3.235m = 5.3%], Philippines [9.080m/82.809m = 11.0%], Puerto Rico [0.039m/3.915m = 1.0%], Somalia* [5.568m/10.742m = 51.8%], US Virgin Islands [0.003m/0.113m = 2.4%], Vietnam* [24.015m/83.585m = 28.7%], total = 82.193m/357.651m = 23.0%

This catalogue of post-1950 avoidable mortality due to violent occupation can be roughly converted to post-1950 under-5 infant mortality by multiplying by a factor of about 0.7 (the ratio of post-1950 under-5 infant mortality to post-1950 avoidable mortality for the non-European world). This data can be used to provide a relative impact statement (noting, of course, that there are various ways in which this kind of assessment could be made e.g. by considering excess mortality for only the period of occupation).

In order of descending absolute post-1950 excess mortality in which they have been complicit we have the following order: UK (727.3m) > France (142.3m) > US (82.2m) > Netherlands (71.6m) > Pakistan (51.2m) > Russia (37.1m)> Belgium (36.0m) > Israel (23.9m) > Portugal (23.5m) > Spain (8.6m) (the Big League) followed by a Minor League of Australia (2.1m) > Ethiopia (1.8m) > Indonesia (0.7m) > South Africa (0.7m) > > > Iraq (0.09m) > Turkey (0.05m) > New Zealand (0.04m).

The above arrangement could be seen to be somewhat unfair on the Russians, (a) because it includes countries that were occupied by Russia for a century or more; (b) all the occupied countries have been contiguous with Russia and (c) the Russian hegemony over Eastern Europe is included while US hegemony over Latin America and the Caribbean (and indeed much of the Third World) is ignored. Accordingly, 2 further arrangements of the data are offered below.

In descending order of “post-1950 excess mortality/2005 population ratio” from the summed data for each set of victim countries we have the following order: Indonesia (81.0%) > Portugal (62.5%) > Belgium (49.9%) > Ethiopia (39.4%) > Pakistan (33.6%) > South Africa (33.1%) = Australia (33.1%) > France (33.0%) > UK (32.5%) > Netherlands (31.7%) > Spain (26.4%) > US (23.0%) > Israel (22.3%) > New Zealand (21.4%) > Russia (13.9%) > Turkey (6.6%) > Iraq (3.3%). Seen in this light, the victims of Russian, Turkish and (transient) Iraqi occupation have done much better overall since 1950 than the other victims of occupation. However an even fairer way of arranging the data would be to normalize it relative to the present population of the occupier i.e. to give a measure of the relative human impact of these “occupier” societies.

In descending order of “total victim country post-1950 excess mortality/2005 occupier population” (expressed as a percentage) we have the following order: UK (1220.3%) > Netherlands (439.1%) > Belgium (347.2%) > Portugal (233.0%) > France (234.3%) > Pakistan (31.8%) > US (27.4%) > Russia (26.2%) > Spain (20.8%) > Australia (10.7%) (the Big League) > a Minor League of Ethiopia (2.4%) > South Africa (1.5%) > New Zealand (1.0%) > Indonesia (0.3%) = Iraq (0.3%) > Turkey (0.07%). Of course the magnitude of this parameter depends upon a mixture of disregard and opportunity. Thus (as shown below) the Australians had a high degree of disregard for their foreign subjects but had very few of them whereas the British had an apparent 2-fold better intrinsic regard but had vastly more victims in their Empire on which the Sun never set.

In order to delineate disregard of the occupiers for their victims a useful measure is obtained by dividing the “post-1950 excess mortality/2005 population” ratio for each set of victim countries by the value of this parameter for the Occupier. This gives a good measure of the relative mortalities in the victim and occupier countries. Thus a ratio of 1.0 tells us that the victims were no worse off than the occupiers. A ratio under 1.0 tells us that the victims were actually better off in the post-1950 era than the occupiers. Values greater than 1.0 provide a measure of the disregard of occupiers for their victims i.e. of entrenched racism.

In descending order of “victim country”/ “occupier country” post-1950 excess mortality/2005 population ratios we have the following order: Netherlands (63.4) > Israel (15.9) > Portugal (14.5) > Australia (11.4) > Spain (10.6) > US (8.6) > Belgium (6.9) > France (6.1) > New Zealand (5.9) > UK (4.4) > Indonesia (2.6) > Russia (1.7) > South Africa (1.1) = Pakistan (1.1) > Ethiopia (0.8) > Turkey (0.5) > Iraq (0.2) (the post-1950 excess mortality/2005 population ratio for the Netherlands has been taken as about 1% i.e. the approximate value for the “best” Western European countries). This ordering arrangement provides a much better assessment of the post-1950 excess mortality of significantly occupied countries but each case has to be intelligently interpreted. Thus the ratios of much less than 1.0 for Turkey and Iraq reflect occupation of countries that were much wealthier than the Occupiers. The values of about 1 for Ethiopia, South Africa and Pakistan reflect the similar burden of excess mortality in occupier and victim countries.

Normal human nature explains the value for Russia (1.7) i.e. one expects the Occupier to be a bit better off than the occupied - an imperfect application (in a formally atheist empire) of “do unto others as you would have them do unto you”. This analysis illustrates the phenomenon of increasing disregard for others as we go from the immediate family to local community and thence to distance societies. The value of 2.6 for Indonesia reflects egregious genocide in East Timor over a quarter century by a brutal, military régime that treated its own citizens badly for 4 decades. However the very high ratios for European countries (other than Russia) simply indicate deep disregard for their colonial and neo-colonial subjects i.e. profound racism. Foreign occupation simply imposes rulers who have less regard for their subjects than do indigenous rulers.

3.15 Summary

Regional analysis of post-1950 global avoidable mortality broadly reveals that low annual per capita income, low adult literacy and a burden of occupation and war correlate with poor mortality outcomes. However adult literacy can still be about 50% in the poorest countries of the world and some well-run countries (notably Cuba and Sri lanka) have annual per capita incomes 40 times lower than for the US but nevertheless have very good mortality outcomes.

War and occupation correlate best with poor mortality outcomes and this can be summarized in ascending order of “post-1950 excess mortality/2005 population” ratio outcomes as follows: Overseas Europe (rich countries that have never been invaded but with post-war records of egregious invasion and occupation of distant lands) > Western Europe (a set of rich countries that have not been invaded since WW2 but including some countries associated with imposing colonial occupation, neo-colonial occupation and war on non-European countries across the globe in the post-war era) > Eastern Europe (post-war “welfare state” rule by the Soviet Union or other Communist dictatorships, generally peaceful - with the exception of 3 post-war Soviet invasions of contiguous countries and the civil wars in the Balkans, Moldova and Chechnya - and with no occupation of distant lands) > South America (moderate incomes, generally peaceful but variously with US hegemony, US-backed military dictatorships, coups, invasions and civil wars and generally no invasions of distant lands, with the exception of US Coalition involvements) > East Asia (remarkable social and economic recovery from WW2, the Korean War and US sanctions against China, some conflicts with contiguous countries but no invasions of distant lands with the exception of US-linked involvements) > Turkey, Iran and Central Asia (variously suffering from European occupation and malignant intervention with major First World-backed wars involving Iran and Afghanistan) > Arab North Africa and the Middle East (decolonization, British, French, US and Israeli wars, oil, excellent outcomes in the peaceful Gulf states and no invasions of distant lands) > South East Asia (variously European-imposed colonialism, occupation, war, militarism and corruption) > the Pacific (mixed outcomes from colonial occupation and neo-colonial consequences) > South Asia (crippled by the consequences of 2 centuries of racist and exploitative British imperialism, namely communal hatreds, unresolved territorial and religious issues, militarism, war, nuclearization, corruption, poverty and acute economic and health issues) > Non-Arab Africa (colonialism, neo-colonialism, corruption, militarism, debt, malignant First World interference, economic exclusion, poverty, disease and the tragically avoidable HIV/AIDS epidemic).

In descending order of the “victim country”/ “occupier country” ratios of the “post-1950 excess mortality/2005 population” ratios we have the following order: the Netherlands (infinity) > Spain (17.4) > Israel (15.9) > Portugal (14.5) > Australia (11.4) > US (8.5) > Belgium (6.9) > france (6.1) > New Zealand (5.9) > UK (4.4) > Indonesia (2.6) > Russia (1.7) > South Africa (1.1) = Pakistan (1.1) > Ethiopia (0.8) > Turkey (0.5) > Iraq (0.2). The very high ratios for occupier European countries (other than Russia) simply indicate deep disregard for their colonial and neo-colonial subjects i.e. profound racism. Foreign occupation results in rulers with less intrinsic regard for the ruled than with indigenous rulers.


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