Chapter 2. Global post-1950 excess mortality and under-5 infant mortality

Chapter 2. Global post-1950 excess mortality and under-5 infant mortality

“A single death is a tragedy, a million deaths is a statistic.”

Joseph Stalin ¹

“We are responsible not only for what we do but also for what we could have prevented… We should consider the consequences both of what we do and what we decide not to do.”

Peter Singer in Writings on an Ethical Life ²

“Thou shalt not kill.”

Ten Commandments of the Holy Bible, Exodus, 20:13 ³

“Everyone has the right to life, liberty and security of person.”

Article 3, UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights ⁴

“We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all Men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.”

Thomas Jefferson, The American Declaration of Independence ⁵

2.1 Estimation of mortality and avoidable mortality (excess mortality)

Excess mortality for a given country for a given period is the difference between the ACTUAL mortality and the deaths EXPECTED for a decently run, peaceful country with the same demographics. The problem of assessing such “ideal”, EXPECTED mortality rates has been approached here in an empirical, interpolative fashion. The United Nations Populations Division has provided detailed demographic data of population, crude birth rate and crude death rate for the period from 1950 onwards for essentially all countries in the world together with projections for beyond 2005. This enables simple calculation of mortality for all countries in the world for the period 1950-2005 (or, precisely, from mid-1950 to mid-2005) . This detailed demographic data has also been used graphically to assess baseline “ideal” mortality rates for all countries to enable calculation of “excess mortality” over the period since 1950 as described below.

Typically, since 1950 the observed crude death rate for a “good” country starts out at a relatively very high value, progressively declines to a minimum value and then starts increasing slightly, this latter effect reflecting an increasingly older population. However there are a number of variations on this theme:

a. In the case of the Netherlands the mortality rate did not decrease since 1950 and in fact has steadily increased, albeit very slightly. This situation formally yields an excess mortality estimate of zero over this period.

b. A more typical result for “good” countries (notably most Western European countries but with numerous examples in the non-European world) involves a slight decrease in the death rate to a minimum value, this being followed by a very small but steady increase reflecting an increasingly aged population (in an ideal situation only the elderly would die) . This minimum value has been taken as a “baseline” estimate of “ideal” mortality rate for the preceding period, excess mortality being taken as zero for the period after this minimum was achieved.

c. With some European countries, notably many in Eastern Europe (and Hungary in particular), the death rate from the 1960s onwards has been slightly but distinctly higher than that obtained in Western European countries. The causes of this small elevation in death rate are not clear (although smoking, excess alcohol consumption and socio-medical factors linked to authoritarian communist régimes can be speculatively invoked). This post-minimum “extra” mortality rate has been taken into account for these countries.

d. For “good” non-European countries with an initially high but subsequently declining birth rate (notably in East Asia and in many countries of South East Asia, South America, the Pacific and the Arab Persian Gulf), the values for the minimum post-1950 baseline annual mortality rate cluster around 4 per 1,000 of population. This has been taken as the “baseline” mortality rate value for a swathe of initially high birth rate countries in Africa, Asia, South America and the Pacific in which the mortality rate has not reached a minimum since 1950. It has also been used as a baseline for a swathe of countries in Africa in which the birth rate has remained very high, this being a conservative assumption that will actually underestimate the excess mortality because ideally mortality rate should be very low in countries with a very young population.

This empirical, interpolative approach has been applied to virtually all countries in the world (with the omission of some tiny states such as Andorra, Monaco, Liechtenstein and some island states of the Caribbean and Pacific). The total excess mortalities since 1950 were then calculated for all countries by simple addition. This then enabled calculation of the post-1950 excess mortalities for specific, geopolitically defined regions and the total excess mortality for the whole world.

No doubt much more exacting analyses can be performed using highly-tuned mathematical modelling employing baseline mortality estimates responding exquisitely to subtle changes in demographic patterns. Nevertheless, as outlined in the Introductory Chapter, my approach was dictated by resources, acceptable simplicity and the urgent need to get a reasonable figure before an unheeding and unresponsive world in order to minimize the carnage. Further, the quantitative validity of the present approach has been checked by applying a completely different approach, namely that of estimating post-1950 under-5 infant mortality.

In an ideal world, death would overwhelmingly involve the elderly. However in reality most “excess mortality” occurs in relatively high birth rate non-European countries with children being the major victims of avoidable death. Thus the total post-1950 excess mortality of the world is 1,302 million with 55 million (4.2%) of this deriving from relatively low birth rate European countries. In comparison, the total post-1950 under-5 infant mortality is 878 million of which 25 million (2.8%) derives from European countries. The under-5 infant mortality total is thus clearly consonant with the total excess mortality estimate. The calculation of under-5 infant mortality is outlined below.

2.2 Calculation of under-5 infant mortality

The United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) provides detailed statistics on under-5 infant mortality rates (annual under-5 year old deaths per 1,000 live births) for virtually all countries in the world since 1960. Under-5 mortality rates were plotted versus time; rates in the short intervals of 1950-1960 and 2002-2005 were obtained elsewhere or by extrapolation and rates between the major period of 1960-2005 by interpolation. In some cases (notably for several Pacific, Caribbean, African and Central Asian countries), estimates of under-5 infant mortality at particular times were obtained from data for demographically similar countries within the same geopolitical grouping.

The United Nations Population Division provides population and crude birth rate data back to 1950. Using this data, live births were calculated for all countries over this period. Using under-5 infant mortality rates per 1,000 live births, the under-5 infant mortality was thence calculated for all countries since 1950. The 2003 estimates of annual under-5 deaths are in agreement with UNICEF calculations (UNICEF, 2005) indicating the validity of the methodology used in this analysis. As indicated above, the total post-1950 under-5 infant mortality of 878 million for the world is consonant with the total global post-1950 excess mortality estimate of 1,302 million. These two parameters are compared further below.

2.3 Comparison of global and regional post-1950 total mortality and under-5 infant mortality

Table 2.1 and the following tables summarize regional and global data for post-1950 excess mortality and post-1950 under-5 infant mortality. In these tables the “post-1950 excess mortality/2005 population ratio” is abbreviated as EM/POP and the “post-1950 under-5 infant mortality/2005 population ratio” is represented as IM/POP.

We are all aware from electronic and print media that mortality, and infant mortality in particular, are “very bad” in the Third World but the actual numerical magnitudes of the total global post-1950 excess mortality (1.3 billion) and under-5 infant mortality (0.9 billion) are utterly appalling. It is accordingly important to examine the validity and consistency of these estimates.

As outlined above, the calculations of total mortality and under-5 infant mortality are straightforward and the 2003 results are in precise agreement with UNICEF calculations.

Thus the total mortality and under-5 infant mortality estimates are essentially unexceptional from a methodological point of view. On the other hand, the excess mortality calculations depend on assumptions of estimated baselines of “ideal” mortality expected for decently-run, peaceful countries with the same demographics. However the values used have involved conservative judgments and the methodology has been applied consistently to obtain estimates of “avoidable mortality” (excess mortality). Of course, the accuracy of the primary UN data could be sensibly questioned but for the present humanitarian exercise it is essentially all that is readily available.

Everyone has to die but the most vulnerable people are the very young and the very old. Thus plots of mortality versus age show marked elevation at either end of the age spectrum. The total mortality in a society will depend upon birth rate, death rate, age distribution and the social parameters influencing these factors. Thus in typically well-run, peaceful and prosperous societies such as those of European countries, children represent a lower proportion of society than in non-European countries, mortality is largely confined to the elderly and infant mortality is a very low proportion of total mortality (Table 2.1). ⁶

Estimates of total mortality for various geopolitical groupings can be “normalized” for the purposes of comparison, for example by expressing post-1950 mortality as a percentage of the present population (Table 2.1). The values of post-1950 mortality/2005 population range from about 30.6% (Latin America and the Caribbean) to 54.9% (non-Arab Africa), these values reflecting high birth rate/low death rate and high birth rate/high death rate combinations, respectively. However a sharper focus is obtained by examining mortality among specific age groups, such as infants under the age of 5.

Post-1950 under-5 infant mortality as a percentage of total mortality is 3.3-7.2% (European groupings) and 28.6-49.7% (non-European groupings) (Table 2.1). However these quotients depend upon factors influencing the numerator and the denominator - infant mortality will depend upon social conditions affecting the rate of infant mortality and the number of infants; the total mortality will depend upon factors influencing mortality in various age ranges and the proportions within those ranges. Thus in European countries there is a low infant proportion/low infant mortality rate combination but in most non-European countries there is a combination of a higher proportion of infants and high infant mortality. This is dramatized by the under-5 infant mortality/total mortality percentages of 3.3% for Western Europe and 49.7% for non-Arab Africa.

2.4 Estimation of avoidable under-5 infant mortality

From the under-5 infant mortality/total mortality ratios we can already see a marked divide between European and non-European groupings but the ratio per se does not tell us of the underlying contributing parameters of age distribution and age-specific mortality and the social factors giving rise to these. However, expressing post-1950 under-5 infant mortality as a percentage of the present population gets us much closer to an idea of what have been “good” and “bad” societies in terms of infant mortality - this ratio averages 2.2% for European societies, 15.9% for non-European countries and 13.6% for the world as a whole. However such differences must be assessed properly by taking demographic differences into account, specifically the proportion of under-5 year olds in the various groups; such an approach enables estimation of how much of the observed under-5 infant mortality is “avoidable” in relation to an appropriate baseline.

When the post-1950 under-5 mortality/2005 population percentage for every country is tabulated, the 4 best countries are revealed as Iceland (population 0.3 million), Norway (population 4.6 million), Netherlands (population 16.3 million) and Australia (population 20 million), each having a percentage “score” of 1.0%. Australia is ethnically diverse and more populous than the other countries and can accordingly be conveniently used for a baseline to indicate “world’s best practice” in terms of achievement of low under-5 infant mortality over the period 1950-2005.

Assuming that the Australian total post-1950 under-5 infant mortality of 0.202 million is as good as any country could do over this period, we can further assume that this result represents the “unavoidable” under-5 infant mortality for any human population over this period with the same key demographic components, namely an average population of 14.162 million and an average under-5 infant percentage of the population of 8.65%. We can solve for the “intrinsic factor”, F, that yields this result from the following equation:

Australian total post-1950 “unavoidable” under-5 infant mortality = F x 14.162 million x 0.0865 = 0.202 million. The value of F is 0.165. We can now apply this value of F to other situations in the post-1950 period as described below.

Afghanistan had an average post-1950 population of 14.550 million, a total under-5 infant mortality of 11.514 million and an under-5 age group representing an average of 17.75% of the population. Using our factor F from our analysis of the Australian result we can calculate that the Afghanistan total post-1950 “unavoidable” under-5 infant mortality = 0.165 x 14.550 million x 0.1775 = 0.424 million. The “avoidable” infant mortality is thus 11.514 – 0.424 = 11.090 million, this representing 96.3% of the total under-5 infant mortality.

Similar calculations involving UN data of under-5 percentage of population, post-1950 average population, post-1950 under-5 infant mortality and the same F value of 0.165 can be performed for other countries and groups of countries to estimate the “avoidable” under-5 infant mortality. Thus the “avoidable” post-1950 under-5 infant mortality for Iraq represents about 88% of the total for Iraq and that for the whole world represents about 90% of the total for the world.

This analysis indicates that about 90% of the post-1950 under-5 infant mortality in high death rate countries and in the world as a whole has been “avoidable” based on the Australian “world’s best practice” standard as a baseline. Of course for prosperous countries the “avoidable” percentage of the under-5 infant mortality has been much lower e.g. about 20% for the US and, by definition, 0% for Australia.

2.5 Comparison of under-5 infant mortality and excess mortality

Measurements can be made of differences in mortality between countries (differential mortality) but for the purposes of valid comparison the mortality statistics have to be “normalized” e.g. by expressing them as a ratio with respect to the present population or the average population over a given period. We have seen that ratios such as total under-5 infant mortality/present population give pointers to differential mortality in different countries and groups of countries but that such parameters have to be corrected by taking into account the actual proportion of under-5 year olds. Calculation of such corrected and “normalized” “under-5 infant mortalities” (or indeed mortalities in other population segments) for every country in the world for the period from 1950 onwards is possible - but this would be an immense task.

As described in section 2.1, an all-encompassing approach to the problem of calculating differential mortality in the world is to estimate “excess mortality” (avoidable mortality), this being the difference between the ACTUAL mortality for a country in a given period and the mortality EXPECTED for a well-administered, peaceful country with the same demographics. The approach taken here for every country in the world for the period 1950-2005 has been to obtain estimates of what the “base-line” death rate should have been over this period, to then calculate the “excess mortality rate” and hence calculate the excess mortality. This approach takes into account differences in demography between countries and does not confine itself to only one age segment of each population.

More exquisitely massaged estimates of the “excess mortality rate” can be envisaged using sophisticated mathematical modelling and people can legitimately quibble about the methodology employed here. Nevertheless the methodology employed has been reasonable, well-defined and consistently applied. Further, the independently calculated total post-1950 under-5 infant mortality of 878 million is similar to the total excess mortality (1,302 million). However more exacting comparisons can be made as outlined below.

Empirically for the whole world, the total post-1950 infant mortality is 67.4% of the estimated total excess mortality. However it is clear that the world falls into 2 clear-cut sets in relation to total post-1950 under-5 infant mortality - thus the ratio of this parameter to total mortality is 4.8% for the European world and 38.4% for the non-European world and the ratio to current population averages 2.2% for the Europeans and 15.9% for the non-Europeans. The ratio (as a percentage) of total post-1950 under-5 infant mortality to total post-1950 excess mortality is 45.7% for the European countries (value range 34.8-54.8% for regional subsets) and 68.4% for non-European countries (with values ranging from 47.5% to103.3% for the various regional subsets).

It is apparent from the data presented in Tables 2.1-2.12 that there are big differences between countries and regions in the total mortality, under-5 infant mortality and excess mortality when these parameters are “normalized” by expressing these parameters as ratios of each other or as ratios with respect to the current relevant population. It is important to note that while under-5 infant mortality and excess mortality have been calculated by independent approaches, the ratios of these parameters to total mortality and current population all essentially follow a consistent pattern when the various geopolitical regions of the world are ranked.

The calculation here of under-5 infant mortality involves unexceptional and straightforward arithmetic employing UN- and UNICEF-derived statistical data on population, birth rate per 1,000 of population and under-5 infant deaths/per 1,000 births. While the calculation of total mortality is similarly straightforward (simply involving knowledge of population and deaths per 1,000 of population), assessment of excess mortality involves more complicated, interpolative assessments of graphical presentations of mortality versus time, assessments of demographic similarities and estimations of what are “ideal” mortalities for particular countries over time. Nevertheless, excess mortality is a useful parameter in that it provides a measure of avoidable mortality for all subsections of a population.

The consistency in the relative values of post-1950 excess mortality and post-1950 under-5 infant mortality (Tables 2.1-2.12) means that for particular countries and regions we can now very simply estimate excess mortality from unexceptional and straightforward calculations of under-5 infant mortality from UN and UNICEF data.

2.6 “Humanizing” mortality

People inevitably die but ideally were expected do so in past decades after “three score years and ten” (or perhaps “four score years” in more recent years). The values of total post-1950 mortality expressed as a percentage of current population cover a relatively narrow span from 30.6% (relatively poor Latin America and the Caribbean) to 54.9% (for wretchedly poor, high birth rate non-Arab Africa) (Table 2.1). The average values of this parameter are 42.4% (for the world), 46.9% (for the European world) and 41.5% (for the non-European world). The similarity in these values simply reflects the reality that we all have to die and nearly all do so in the time span of the order of a century.

In an “ideal” world, mortality would be largely confined to the elderly and accordingly the post-1950 mortality/2005 population ratio should ideally be much lower for the non-European world which has a much higher proportion of children than European societies - the numerator should be lower (because of the lower mortality of children), the denominator should be higher (because of the relatively higher population growth in high birth rate societies) and accordingly the quotient should be lower. However the very similarity of the average post-1950 mortality/2005 population ratios for the European and non-European groupings and the much higher ratio for non-Arab Africa (54.9%) than for Overseas Europe (35.9%) both tell us that something is seriously wrong in the world, that there is a major departure from the “ideal”.

Fundamental human expectations of “ideal” circumstances colour our attitudes as exampled by the simple statement above that “something is seriously wrong in the world”, that there is a major departure from the “ideal”. Thomas Jefferson in the American Declaration of Independence provided a powerfully succinct statement of fundamental human expectations of the “ideal” in his enunciation of “self-evident” “truths”:

“We hold these Truths to be self-evident, that all Men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienableRights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness”.

2.7 “Humanizing” excess mortality

We have all become familiar via the electronic and print mass media with the phenomena of poverty, disease, violence, mass mortality and mass infant mortality in the Third World. However the present analysis aims to quantitate global mortality by estimating the actual numbers involved - and hence instigate more resolute action to stop this immense crime against humanity in a globalized and highly militarized world. Thus we are all aware of the World War 2 Jewish Holocaust and most people are aware that some 6 million people died. The simple idea that “many” or “lots” of Jews died is insufficient - the quantitation of “6 million” really challenges our comprehension of that appalling crime. Further, the figure of “6 million” and its psychological consequences powerfully underscore the Jewish resolution of “Never again”. ⁷

However the numbers involved in global mass mortality are 2 orders of magnitude greater than the death toll of the Jewish Holocaust. Global post-1950 excess mortality and under-5 infant mortality total 1.3 billion and 0.9 billion, respectively, and about 90% of the non-European under-5 infant mortality of over 0.8 billion has been avoidable. The challenge is to come to grips with these immense numbers in human terms. Some approaches to “humanizing” excess mortality and under-5 infant mortality are outlined below.

Excess mortality can be expressed as a percentage of mortality, thus telling us what proportion of observed mortality has been avoidable. We are familiar with responses to particular kinds of death that have in an absolute or statistical sense been unavoidable. Thus the death of the very old will typically be described as death after “a good innings”. Given that cancer and some other debilitating and painful diseases are major causes of premature death among the middle aged in the West, people might say in retrospect that “it was good that suffering was not too prolonged”. Deaths from accidents, adverse medical circumstances and even from smoking evoke sympathy, especially when the victims are very young or in the prime of life. However passion and anger only emerge when there has been clear-cut human avoidability – as in murder, manslaughter and social or individual negligence.

There is a marked divide in relation to the post-1950 excess mortality/ post-1950 mortality ratio between the European world (average10.6%; range 3.3-26.3%) and the non-European world (average 56.2%; range 8.2-87.0%). The excess mortality (avoidable mortality)/total mortality ratio has been on average over 5 times greater in the non-European world than in European countries i.e. in a risk assessment sense, avoidable mortality has been much more likely for non-Europeans than for Europeans. Overall only 10.6% of mortality has been avoidable in the European world whereas the 56.6% proportion means avoidable death is much more likely than unavoidable death for non-Europeans.

However the excess mortality/mortality ratio still gives us a somewhat depersonalized, statistical view of avoidable mortality. We have some perception of the dangers of some relatively common human pursuits – thus there are 6 billion people in the world and yet each year 1 million (0.017%) die in car accidents and 5 million (0.083%) die from cigarette-smoking-related causes. Nevertheless, in prosperous, risk-conscious European societies nearly everyone will travel by car and perhaps 25% of people smoke. A more personalized estimate of excess mortality is accordingly required.

Expressing post-1950 excess mortality as a percentage of the current (2005) population for given groupings is one way of “humanizing” these mortality statistics. Thus for Australia the excess mortality/present population ratio is 2.9% i.e. about 3 people died avoidably since 1950 for every 100 Australians alive today. Thus at a wedding or another such big gathering of happy people only several guests out of 100 would carry the weight of some tragic, avoidable loss over the preceding half century. Indeed, for my own immediate family in Australia (blood relatives, spouses and offspring), the definitely avoidable post-1950 mortality/current people ratio has been 1/31 i.e. 3.2%.

On the other hand, the post-1950 excess mortality/present population ratio for Timor-Leste (East Timor) is 81.0% i.e. for every 100 people alive in East Timor today, since 1950 there have been 81 avoidable deaths (from deprivation, malnourishment-related disease, lack of primary health care and outright genocidal violence). Again I can offer an “anecdotal” personal experience relating to this appalling statistic. Several years ago we attended a huge wedding reception in Melbourne for a lovely couple who had both been involved in help for East Timorese refugees. We sat at a table with many East Timorese, young and old. The adults spoke very little English but I solved my communication problem by ducking out of the feast, purchasing a ream of A4 paper and some black felt-tipped pens and then drawing rapid portraits of everyone. The children were delighted and happy. The adults were also happy but in the portraiture process I had to look deeply into their eyes – and saw, without exception, pain from their dreadful experiences and loss.

Of course the issue arises of how “avoidable” the estimated “avoidable” mortality has actually been. This analysis covers the period from 1950 onwards during which period the UN has provided the requisite demographic statistics for this study. However the post-1950 period is important for another reason. Since that time potentially everyone in the world could have had access to a whole range of survivability-linked social benefits - including sanitation, clean drinking water, soap, antiseptics, major vaccinations, mosquito netting, antimalarials, antibiotics, universal literacy, preventative health education and primary health care. Indeed the “baselines” used in this study are not the products of space-age 21st century medical miracles but the empirical results actually achieved by demographically similar countries over this post-1950 period.

2.8 The human aspect of under-5 infant mortality

A common fundamental trait of human beings is affection for children. Human offspring are peculiar in their post-partum helplessness and long-term dependence on their mothers and indeed on other members of their social group. The size of the human brain requires birth at a stage permitting safe egress that is then followed by lengthy period of dependence. This lengthy rearing process involves a major social investment that is reflected in maternal love, paternal and sibling affection, the involvement of other family members (notably the “allomothering” or “aunt-behaviour” of women) and the warm regard and conspicuous protection offered by society as a whole. ⁸

Good treatment of infants is characteristic of orderly human societies but within populous societies under acute stress such decent human behaviours will be discarded. However, even in some conspicuously violent, male-dominated societies there are conventions prohibiting male violence against other men in the presence of women and children. Nevertheless, from child labour in the colonial era and the early days of the industrial revolution to present-day Third World child labour, child soldiers and child prostitution, economic pressure and greed have perverted “natural” human behaviour towards infants.

Historically, mass mortality of infants was associated with the genocidal European invasions of North America, South America, Australasia and the Pacific in which introduced disease was more important than conventional violence in decimating native populations. In the last century explicit, violent mass murder of infants (as well as of adults) occurred repeatedly, as for example during the genocides applied to the Hereros of Namibia, the Armenians of Anatolia, the Jews of Europe, the Cambodian civilian victims of the Khmer Rouge, the Tutsis of Rwanda and the East Timorese victims of Anglo-American-backed Indonesian military.

Whether a child dies a violent death or dies of deprivation or malnourishment-exacerbated disease, the end result is the same. Accordingly, to this list of infanticidal horrors of the last century we should add the victims of enormous man-made famines in Russia (the early 1920s), the Ukraine (early 1930s), British-occupied Bengal (during World War 2) and China (during the Great Leap Forward). Major wars such as the Japanese invasion of China, World War 1 and World War 2 have been major killers of civilians through the accompanying social and economic dislocation. Notwithstanding the creation of the UN after World War 2, there has been immense avoidable infant mortality over the last half century that is closely linked to First World-imposed occupation, neo-colonial “occupation”, economic exploitation, economic exclusion, militarization, debt, corrupt client régimes and war.

For decent human beings like ourselves, the mass abuse and mortality of infants is simply unacceptable. It nevertheless continues unabated – as evidenced by the 0.9 billion post-1950 under-5 infant mortality. One is almost reduced to impotent despair when one sees that the mainstream media of the First World countries with a massive responsibility for this carnage will not even report the magnitude of this holocaust. Politicians when very very rarely cornered on this issue will obfuscate by solely addressing the issue of violence-associated infant death that is very difficult to quantitate (as in war-torn Iraq at the moment) while utterly ignoring the overwhelmingly much more important issue of overall avoidable infant mortality.

Avoidable mortality in non-European countries is regarded by politicians and media as somehow “normal” or “too hard” to deal with – but neither proposition is correct. Avoidable mass infant mortality is utterly abnormal, unacceptable and the outcome of obscene socio-political pathology. Assertions by Europeans that high mortality for non-Europeans is somehow a “normal state” are simply racist and implicitly genocidal. Further, a long list of “good outcome” countries detailed here show that this immense crime can be readily addressed. One way of addressing this evil is to identify the dimensions of the problem and to establish causality. Tables 2.1-2.12 document the extent of excess mortality and under-5 infant mortality for all regions and essentially all countries in the world. Tables 2.2-2.12 also include current data on life expectancy, per capita income and literacy for each country to enable ready correlative assessments.

The “post-1950 excess mortality/2000 population ratio” averages as follows in increasing order for the major groupings: 2.7% (Overseas Europe) < 5.0% (Western Europe) < 7.5% (Eastern Europe) < 9.4% (Latin America and Caribbean) < 10.9% (East Asia) < 20.7% (Turkey, Iran and Central Asia) < 23.0 (Arab Middle East and North Africa) < 25.1 (South East Asia) < 27.3% (the Pacific) < 31.9% (South Asia) < 43.2% (non-Arab Africa). This pattern is substantially reflected in that for the “post-1950 under-5 infant mortality/2005 population ratio”, the order being: 1.5% (Overseas Europe) < 1.7% (Western Europe) < 7.2% (Eastern Europe) < 9.7% (Latin America and Caribbean) < 10.3% (East Asia) < 12.8% (South East Asia) < 13.0% (the Pacific) <15.4% (Arab Middle East and North Africa) < 17.0% (Turkey, Iran and Central Asia) < 19.5% (South Asia) < 27.3% (non-Arab Africa).

In general, post-1950 excess mortality increases with decreasing per capita income but excellent outcomes have been achieved in countries with relatively low annual per capita incomes of about $1,000, namely Cuba, Paraguay and Sri Lanka which have “post-1950 excess mortality/2005 population” ratios of 4.1-9.4% as compared to that of 2.8% for the US (annual per capita income about $38,000). Low excess mortality is associated with high adult literacy but appallingly high post-1950 excess mortality can still occur in countries with adult literacy in excess of 80% e.g. Congo (Brazzaville), Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland and Zimbabwe. However, war and occupation imposed by First World countries generally correlate with excess mortality. The following chapters analyse the dimensions, correlates and causes of the continuing humanitarian disaster of global avoidable mortality.

Chapter 1. Introduction – global avoidable mortality

Chapter 1

Introduction – global avoidable mortality

“What are a few hundred thousand to the Multitudians, whose myriads are countless?! A loss that goes unnoticed is no loss at all.”

the Multitudians to the Great Constructor Trurl in The Cyberiad by Stanislaw Lem ¹

“But the main thing he sees is that the whole system of the world is built on a lie.”

Jake in The Heart is a Lonely Hunter by Carson McCullers ²

“In the standard of life they have nothing to spare. The slightest fall from the present standard of life in India means slow starvation, and the actual squeezing out of life, not only of millions but of scores of millions of people, who have come into the world at your invitation and under the shield and protection of British power.”

Winston Churchill, speech to the House of Commons (1935) ³

“But the agony of European Jewry was enacted in a separate moral arena, a grim twilight world where their conventional ethical moral code did not apply. And so they “came and looked, and passed by on the other side”.”

Bernard Wasserstein on British Establishment moral perception of the Jewish Holocaust ⁴

“Le scandale du monde est ce que fait l’offence, Et ce n’est pas pécher que pécher en silence (It is public scandal that constitutes offence, and to sin in secret is not to sin at all).”

Molière (Jean-Baptiste Poquelin) in Le Tartuffe ⁵

1.1 Science & history – history ignored yields history repeated

Humanity has made immense strides over the last few millennia through rational investigation of the world. Scientific analysis of the world involves truth, reason, free communication and application of the scientific method involving generating and critically testing potentially falsifiable hypotheses ⁶. Departure from this methodology de-rails the scientific process (although as analysed by Kuhn ⁷, Koestler ⁸ and others there are other ways of approaching reality and “right brain” mysticism, aesthetics and poetry have been important in the genesis of some radical new views of reality leading to major scientific breakthroughs).

Critically, lying by omission (ignoring, rubbing out, deleting or hiding the data) or lying by commission (falsifying the data) are fundamentally inimical to understanding reality. This is particularly true in scientific approaches to history and human affairs. “Rubbing out” data relating to mass human mortality greatly increases the probability of the recurrence of such events. Thus we are familiar with the adage “history ignored yields history repeated” ⁹ and the post-Jewish Holocaust (Shoah) resolution “Never again” of the Jewish people. Indeed in this same spirit, Germany, France, Austria, Switzerland and Israel have made holocaust denial illegal (albeit only in relation to the Jewish Holocaust).

While we are all aware of the horror and magnitude of the Jewish Holocaust (6 million victims) we shall see that other immense, man-made mass mortality events have been deleted from history even as they were happening.

1.2 Deleting history – the “forgotten”, man-made, WW2 Bengal famine

Even in the liberal Anglo-Celtic democracies, huge, man-made mass mortality events continue to be “rubbed out” of history books, media offerings and hence from general public perception. Thus during World War 2 (WW2) in British-ruled India there was an immense man-made, economic, “market forces” famine in the major province of Bengal that killed an estimated 4 million Hindu and Muslim victims. In essence, a number of factors had led to an increase in the price of rice, the Bengali staple. Those who could not afford the ultimate 4-fold increase in the price of rice simply perished in the context of callous foreign rule.

Major factors contributing to the increase in the price of rice included a huge decrease in Indian grain imports, Japanese occupation of rice-producing areas of Burma, decreases in rice production due to storm and fungal pathogen infection, British strategic seizure of boats, British sequestration of some food stocks, a massive decrease in Indian Ocean Allied shipping (in turn due to the successive events of strategically erroneous Allied bombing of Germany, decreased protection of Atlantic convoys and big losses of Allied shipping), granting of provincial autonomy over their own grain reserves (a divide and rule policy), deliberate British ignoring of the Famine Codes for “political reasons”, hoarding and racist British administrative lethargy. Calcutta was a major industrial city undergoing a war-time boom and essentially sucked food out of a starving, food-producing countryside. ¹⁰

Keeping the Indians half-starved was evidently a successful British control policy over 2 centuries. However it has been suggested that the real reason for the Bengal Famine was a cold-blooded, deliberate scorched earth policy so that any Japanese invasion of India from Burma would encounter a starving countryside ¹¹ - rather akin to the highly successful British strategy by Sir Arthur Wellesley (later Lord Wellington) against the French under Masséna in the defence of Lisbon in 1811 during the Napoleonic Wars). ¹²

Civilian and military sexual exploitation of starving women and girls involved some 30,000 victims in Calcutta alone, possibly hundreds of thousands throughout Bengal and was so large as to impact upon female survival statistics. The involvement of the British Military Labour Corps in this famine-enforced violation of women and girls demands comparison with the notorious WW2 “comfort women” abuses of the Japanese Imperial Army. ¹³

Remarkably, this horrendous, man-made disaster that occurred at the same time as the Jewish Holocaust and killed a similar number of people has been largely “rubbed out” of British history books and from general public perception – it represents a major “forgotten holocaust” because “history is written by the victor”. The reader can readily estimate the extent of this continuing British academic, politician and media holocaust-denial by scanning relevant texts in their personal, local, city or university libraries.

Bengal is well-watered, has rich soil, an energetic population and abundant sunshine. It is definitely one part of South Asia that should be famine-proof. However a dozen years after the conquest of Bengal by Robert Clive (at the Battle of Plassey, 1757), a man-made famine in 1769-1770, precipitated by food shortage and exacerbated by rapacious British taxation, killed 10 million Bengalis or one third of the population. Yet the Great Bengal Famine is substantially deleted from British history and when rarely mentioned is dismissed in a few words. During the subsequent 2 centuries, Bengal (as well as other parts of British-ruled India) was swept by repeated famines, with this culminating in the “forgotten” WW2 Bengal famine.

In 1971 the US-armed and US-backed military regime in West Pakistan overturned the results of a democratic election and invaded East Pakistan (the future Bangladesh). 3 million Bengalis were killed and 0.3 million Bengali women and girls raped. ¹⁴ However an even worse disaster now faces Bengal due to the consequences of First World industrial profligacy, namely inundation of this substantially deltaic country from the successive consequences of global warming, sea level rises, increases cyclonic intensity and storm surges (a fate threatening other tropical delta regions including southern Thailand, parts of China and the Gulf states of the USA).

Thus in both 1988 and 1998 over half of Bangladesh was under water (from excess monsoon run-off) and 2005 saw the devastating inundation of New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina. Humanity is being seriously endangered by First World greed and unacceptable disregard of history and physical reality. However a holocaust has been happening over the last half century that dwarfs the Jewish holocaust and the “forgotten” Bengal Famine by a factor of about 100 – a largely unreported global avoidable mortality holocaust that has taken the lives of about 1.3 billion human beings since 1950.

1.3 Avoidable mortality (excess mortality), under-5 infant mortality and foreign occupation

Europeans are aware from daily news reports that the human condition can be dreadful in the non-European world. This awfulness can be quantitatively assessed by dispassionately measuring human mortality over the last 55 years using publicly-available United Nations (UN) data.

The United Nations Population Division provides periodically updated demographic estimates and projections for every country and region of the World since 1950. When this project commenced in 2003, the latest data was the “2002 Revision” (later supplanted in 2005 by the “2004 Revision”). ¹⁵ The data tabulated in this book were laboriously calculated over 18 months using the “2002 Revision” data and projections.

Avoidable mortality (technically, excess mortality) is the difference between the ACTUAL mortality in a country and the mortality EXPECTED in a peaceful, decently-run country with the same demographics.

By 1950 ALL the World potentially had access to the requisites for very the low avoidable mortality obtaining in European countries, namely clean water, sanitation, proper nutrition, literacy (especially female literacy), primary health care, antibiotics and major preventive medicine programs including public health education, prophylactics (such as insecticides, antiseptics, mosquito netting, soap and condoms) and major vaccinations.

However such benefits took decades to arrive in many countries and are still variously lacking in African countries. Nevertheless, in most countries outside Africa the annual mortality rate (expressed as deaths per 1,000 people per year) typically declined to a minimum and in the best countries (typically European and East Asian countries) eventually began to rise, with this reflecting aging populations.

In the present analysis the baseline expected mortality rates for all countries were estimated graphically for countries grouped demographically in relation to birth rate, a key demographic parameter. This methodology (detailed in Chapter 2) has a fundamental assumption, namely that from 1950 all the World could and should have had access to the basic requisites for human survival outlined above.

In reality, in the preceding decade most of the non-European World was under First World hegemony (Central and South America) or First World occupation (most of Asia, Africa and the Pacific). Despite the Geneva Conventions (1949) that unambiguously specified that occupying powers were obliged to do everything possible to preserve the lives of their conquered subjects, ¹⁶ the subject non-European World did not receive such life-sustaining requisites from their colonial and neo-colonial masters.

As outlined above, using Web-accessible UN Population Division demographic data, avoidable mortality (excess mortality) was calculated for every country in the World since 1950. The results are horrendous as outlined below.

1.4 Global avoidable mortality (excess mortality)

The 1950-2005 avoidable mortality (excess mortality) has been 1.3 billion for the World, 1.2 billion for the non-European World and about 0.6 billion for the Muslim World - a Muslim Holocaust about 100 times greater than the World War 2 Jewish Holocaust (6 million victims) and the “forgotten” World War 2 Bengal Famine in British-ruled India (4 million Hindu and Muslim victims).

By way of corroboration, using UN data it is possible to calculate the under-5 infant mortality for every country in the World since 1950. The under-5 infant mortality has been 0.88 billion for the World, 0.85 billion for the non-European World and about 0.4 billion for the Muslim World.

Whether a person dies violently or dies non-violently from deprivation or malnourishment-exacerbated disease, the end result is the same and the culpability the same. Further, the Ruler is responsible for the Ruled and (as clearly specified by the Geneva Conventions) an Occupying Power is clearly responsible for avoidable mortality in a conquered country. However avoidable mortality consequent on callous foreign control does not typically cease when foreign soldiers depart. Thus "occupation" can include economic and political hegemony by a foreign power.

First World countries (notably the US, UK, France, Portugal and Russia) variously have a major responsibility for the horrendous post-1950 avoidable mortality in the non-European World through impositions such as colonial occupation, neo-colonial control, corrupt client régimes, militarization, debt, economic exclusion, economic constraint, malignant interference, international war and civil war.

War and foreign occupation have had a major impact on avoidable mortality. This is simply illustrated by geo-political grouping of the countries of the World and expressing their post-1950 avoidable mortality and under-5 infant mortality as percentages of the present (2005) population (indicative of how many post-1950 avoidable deaths or under-5 year old deaths, respectively, for every 100 people alive today for the country or region in question).

Post-1950 avoidable mortality as a percentage of present population has been 2.7% (Overseas Europe, comprising North America, Australasia and Israel), 5.0% (Western Europe), 7.5% (Eastern Europe), 9.4% (Latin America and Caribbean), 10.9% (East Asia), 20.7% (Central Asia), 23.0% (Arab North Africa and Middle East), 25.1% (South East Asia), 27.3% (the Pacific), 31.9% (South Asia) and 43.2% (non-Arab Africa).

Post-1950 under-5 infant mortality as a percentage of present population has been 1.5% (Overseas Europe), 1.7% (Western Europe), 3.8% (Eastern Europe), 9.7% (Latin America and Caribbean), 10.7% (East Asia), 12.8% (South East Asia), 13.0% (the Pacific), 17.0% (Central Asia), 15.4% (Arab North Africa and Middle East), 19.5% (South Asia) and 27.3% (non-Arab Africa).

It can be clearly seen from the above data that elevated post-1950 avoidable mortality and under-5 infant mortality is generally associated with First World occupation and hegemony.

1.5 Non-reportage of global avoidable mortality ensures its continuance

As outlined above, non-reportage of man-made mass mortality events helps ensure their future repetition. Denial of the Jewish Holocaust is regarded as utterly repugnant and indeed is a criminal offence in a number of countries historically linked to that catastrophe. Nevertheless, First World-dominated global mainstream media in general utterly refuse to report the greatest crime in human history, namely the First World-complicit global avoidable mortality holocaust. Academics, politicians and public figures are also complicit in this almost comprehensive, holocaust-denying lying by omission.

Holocaust-ignoring has deadly consequences. Thus the World largely ignored a dozen years of Nazi anti-Semitism and it was only 30 months before the end of WW2 that the Allied Governments formally acknowledged the reality of the Jewish Holocaust. On 17 December 1942 in the House of Commons, Anthony Eden formally read out a joint statement on behalf of 11 Allied Governments: “numerous reports from Europe [indicate] that the German authorities, not content with denying to persons of Jewish race in all the territories over which their barbarous rule has been extended the elementary rights, are now carrying into effect Hitler’s oft-repeated intention to exterminate the Jewish people of Europe. The number of victims of these bloody cruelties is reckoned in many hundreds of thousands of entirely innocent men, women and children ...” ¹⁶

60 years on from the end of WW2, the First World is gripped with a new kind of racism and indeed a new kind of anti-Semitism. If the academics, journalists, politicians, teachers and other public figures of a prosperous, selfish and right-wing First World country such as Australia were to resolutely ignore the Jewish Holocaust, the world would be quite reasonable in regarding them as racist and, specifically, anti-Semitic. Yet the US-led Anglo-Celtic Coalition countries, including Australia, resolutely ignore the global excess mortality holocaust and First World complicity in this avoidable carnage – and while ignoring horrendous continuing injustice to Muslims and Arabs, have demonized and violated these very people in the dishonestly-named and horrendously disproportionate War on Terror. The First World ignoring of the First World-complicit global avoidable mortality holocaust is dishonest, racist and deadly.

This book has been written because, while peace is the only way, silence kills and silence is complicity. We are obliged to inform everyone about ongoing, avoidable human mass mortality. We cannot walk by on the other side. ¹⁷

1.6 Summary

Highly successful, rational, scientific approaches to reality involve truth, reason, free communication and the critical testing of potentially falsifiable hypotheses. Lying by omission and commission derails the scientific process. The victor writes history but history ignored yields history repeated. “Rubbing out” or ignoring mass mortality events increases the probability of their recurrence. While we are all aware of the WW2 Jewish Holocaust, the WW2 man-made Bengal Famine in British-ruled India has been largely deleted from history and from general perception. The World is also generally unaware of the horrendous extent of First World-complicit avoidable mortality (excess mortality) in non-European countries. Avoidable mortality (excess mortality) is defined as the difference between the actual mortality and the mortality expected in a peaceful, decently-run country with the same demographics. Publicly-available UN demographic data have enabled calculation of the post-1950 excess mortality for virtually every country in the World. The post-1950 excess mortality has been 1.3 billion for the World, 1.2 billion for the non-European World and 0.6 billion for the Muslim World, a Muslim Holocaust 100 times greater than the Jewish Holocaust or the “forgotten” Bengal Famine.

By way of corroboration, the post-1950 under-5 infant mortality has been 0.88 billion for the World, 0.85 billion for the non-European World and 0.4 billion for the Muslim World. About 90% of the under-5 infant mortality in the non-European world has been avoidable. The First World (principally the UK, the US, France, Portugal and Russia) have had major complicity in post-1950 excess mortality, this variously involving colonial occupation, neo-colonial hegemony, corrupt client régimes, economic constraint, economic exclusion, militarization, debt, malignant interference, international war and civil war. Non-reportage by media, academics and politicians of the horrendous extent of global excess mortality and infant mortality ensures a continuing carnage of about 55,000 avoidable deaths every day. Peace is the only way but silence kills and silence is complicity. We cannot walk by on the other side.

BODY COUNT. Global avoidable mortality since 1950

BODY COUNT. Global avoidable mortality since 1950

I am a highly published biological scientist and in 2003 published a huge pharmacological text entitled "Biochemical Targets of Plant Bioactive Compounds. A pharmacological reference guide to sites of action and biological effects" (Taylor & Francis, London & New York).

Over the last few years I have carefully researched, written, edited and finally published a science-based history book of very wide potential utility entitled “Body Count. Global avoidable mortality since 1950” (G.M. Polya, Melbourne, 2007; 220 pages, 24 tables; ISBN 1921377051). In the interests of Humanity I am sending copies of this big reference book to key scholars, writers, journalists, humanitarians, media and libraries around the world.

In 1998 I published a detailed book entitled “Jane Austen and the Black Hole of British History. Colonial rapacity holocaust denial and the crisis in biological sustainability” (G.M. Polya, Melbourne; second edition in preparation) (see: http://janeaustenand.blogspot.com/ ). This book dealt with the 2 century atrocity of British rule over India culminating in the man-made Bengal Famine of 1942-1945, The man-made, WW2 Bengal Famine killed 6-7 million people (it is similar in death toll magnitude to the WW2 Jewish Holocaust) but has been largely deleted from British historiography in a continuing process of sustained, racist holocaust denial. “Body count” documents the similarly non-reported avoidable death of 1.3 billion people since 1950 on Spaceship Earth with the First World in control of the flight deck.

“Body Count” is a carefully researched book by a 4 decade career biological scientist on a key social parameter “avoidable mortality” (excess death, deaths that should not have happened) which is nevertheless largely ignored by Mainstream media and for good reason – the post-1950 global avoidable mortality totals about 1.3 billion. Even in the United States, the richest country in the World, it can be estimated from publicly available UN demographic data that 0.2 million under-5 year old American infants have died avoidably over the last 10 years due to the warped Administration priorities of international wars (that have so far caused violent deaths and excess deaths from war-imposed deprivation totalling 4.6 million, 2.2 million and 5.0 million in in Iraq 1990-2011, Somalia 1992-2011, and and Afghanistan 2001-2011, respectively, mostly of Women and Children) rather than of addressing urgent domestic priorities such as infant and maternal health.

I am a scientist and not an ideologue – my core humanitarian philosophy is simply that of the American Declaration of Independence, that all men are created equal and have an inalienable right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.

“Body Count” is a number of books efficiently packaged in a user-friendly way as a KEY REFERENCE WORK for laypersons, high school and college students, teachers, researchers, journalists, human rights activists and workers and other people in public life.

“Body Count”:

(a) summarizes, tabulates and analyzes avoidable mortality for every country in the world since 1950;

(b) uniquely provides a succinct and systematically organized history of every country in the world coupled with key avoidable mortality statistics (a fabulous resource for students, scholars, journalists and human rights activists);

(c) a systematic analysis of the actual causes of excess death in the world (noting that 16 million people die avoidably in the world every year, this including 10 million under-5 avoidable infant deaths); and

(d) finally, sets out a brief and systematic series of practical suggestions for halting the First World-complicit global avoidable mortality holocaust.

A picture says a thousand words. If you indeed become interested in my dispassionately scientific and scholarly but deeply humanitarian book you may also be interested in using the following huge paintings I have painted to spread a message of Peace, Love and Respect for Mother, Child and Woman e.g. “Sydney Madonna”: http://mwcnews.net/content/view/10865/26/ , “Manhattan Madonna”: http://mwcnews.net/content/view/10766/26/ , “Qana”: http://mwcnews.net/content/view/9547/26/ , “Truelove”: http://mwcnews.net/content/view/11031/26/ , Isfahan Matisse: http://mwcnews.net/content/view/14417/26/ , and Alhambra Pollock: http://mwcnews.net/content/view/14082/42/ . Please forward these links to everyone you know in the interests of Peace, Love, Mother and Child – just as I am sending copies of my book to key writers, media and libraries around the world.

Peace is the only way but Silence kills and Silence is complicity. We are obliged to INFORM others about abuses of Humanity.

I have set out below a detailed outline of “Body Count” and its contents.

1. Statement of aims and rationale

Avoidable mortality (excess mortality) is the difference between the ACTUAL deaths in a country over a given period and the deaths EXPECTED for a peaceful, decently-run country with the same demographics. Avoidable mortality provides the bottom-line measure of the consequences of human actions and the success or otherwise of societal, regional and global policies.

UN demographic data enabled calculation of avoidable mortality (and corroborative, independent under-5 infant mortality estimates) for every country in the world since 1950. The 1950-2005 avoidable mortality has totaled 1.3 billion for the world and 1.2 billion for the non-European world, these horrendous estimates being consonant with 1950-2005 under-5 infant mortality estimates of 0.88 billion for the world and 0.85 billion for the non-European world. The data have been tabulated for every country together with other key demographic data and important social indicators, namely adult literacy and annual per capita income.

The avoidable mortality and under-5 infant mortality outcomes have been best in Overseas European countries (the US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Israel) that have never been occupied but have frequently invaded other countries – and the worst outcomes have been for Non-Arab African countries that have variously been subject to centuries of invasion and occupation. Detailed, summarized histories of all countries of the world are accompanied by precise estimates of avoidable mortality in the post-1950 era due to war, occupation, genocide and passive genocide. Thus the post-invasion avoidable mortality (excess deaths) and under-5 infant mortality in Coalition-occupied Iraq now total 1.0 million and 0.5 million, respectively (as adjudged from the latest UN and medical literature data).

Rational global human risk management requires avoidable mortality information, scientific analysis and sensible systemic change. There is no public discussion of the actual human cost of First World policies. For example, the post-invasion avoidable mortality and under-5 infant mortality in Occupied Iraq and Afghanistan now total 3.4 million and 2.4 million, respectively – estimates directly derived from publicly-available UN Population Division data but which are comprehensively ignored by mainstream media.

Avoidable mortality and under-5 infant mortality correlate with war and foreign occupation, with the latter encompassing both explicit violent occupation and neo-colonial hegemony. An apocalyptic quartet of violence, deprivation, disease and LYING is responsible for the continuing carnage. The ruler is responsible for the ruled, death is equally final whether violent or non-violent and mass avoidable mortality of subject people is passive genocide in violation of the Geneva Conventions. Extensive analysis of the causes of avoidable mortality has revealed politically disparate successes (e.g. Cuba and Fiji) that point the way to rational, humane and low cost global solutions involving peace, independence, very low but sufficient incomes, high literacy, good primary health care and governance for the common good.

The three core sections of the book uniquely involve:

(1) detailed analysis and tabulation of avoidable mortality, infant mortality and linked demographic parameters for every country in the world in the period 1950-2005;

(2) a concise summary of the history of every country in the world in the context of avoidable mortality and its political causation; and

(3) a detailed analysis of the physical causes of avoidable mortality (thanatology) and detailed, scientific solutions to a continuing catastrophe that kills 16 million people a year (44,000 daily, about 60% of them infants).

It is a horrifying testament to Mainstream lying by omission and politically correct racism (PC racism) that there are, to my knowledge, NO books doing ANY of these three things in a systematic and comprehensive fashion.

2. Table of contents with listing of chapter headings & short description of each chapter/section

Preamble

Title, Publication Details, Table of Contents, Key Quotations, Detailed Contents, List of Tables & Preface.

Chapter 1. Introduction – global avoidable mortality

1.1 Science & history – history ignored yields history repeated;

1.2 Deleting history – the “forgotten”, man-made WW2 Bengal Famine;

1.3 Avoidable mortality (excess mortality), under-5 infant mortality and foreign occupation;

1.4 Global avoidable mortality (excess mortality);

1.5 Non-reportage of global avoidable mortality ensures its continuance;

1.6 Summary

Chapter 2. Global post-1950 excess mortality and under-5 infant mortality

2.1 Estimation of mortality and avoidable mortality (excess mortality);

2.2 Calculation of under-5 infant mortality;

2.3 Comparison of global and regional post-1950 total mortality and under-5 infant mortality;

2.4 Estimation of avoidable under-5 infant mortality;

2.5 Comparison of under-5 infant mortality and excess mortality;

2.6 “Humanizing” mortality;

2.7 “Humanizing” excess mortality;

2.8 The human aspect of under-5 infant mortality;

Tables 2.1-2.12;

2.9 Summary

Chapter 3. Correlates and causes of post-1950 avoidable global mass mortality

3.1 “Big picture” regional analysis of global post-1950 under-5 infant mortality and excess mortality;

3.2 Overseas Europe: domestic democracy, prosperity, peace and Anglo-American invasion of distant lands;

3.3 Western Europe: domestic bliss and colonial and neo-colonial wars abroad;

3.4 Eastern Europe: totalitarianism, Russian occupation, general peace and low mortality;

3.5 Latin America and Caribbean: colonial and US hegemony – increased violence yields increased mortality;

3.6 East Asia: remarkable resurgence from European wars and sanctions;

3.7 Turkey, Iran and Central Asia: European occupation, intervention and war;

3.8 Arab North Africa and the Middle East: decolonization, Anglo-American and Israeli wars and oil;

3.9 South East Asia – European-imposed colonialism, occupation, war and militarism; 3.10 The Pacific- mixed colonial occupation and post-colonial outcomes;

3.11 South Asia – crippled by the legacies from British imperialism;

3.12 Non-Arab Africa – colonialism, neo-colonialism, corruption, militarism, war and HIV-1;

3.13 To be or not to be - lowest mortality countries invading distant high mortality countries;

3.14 Quantitative assessment of the mortality consequences of occupation;

3.15 Summary

Chapter 4. Country-by-country analysis of avoidable mortality in European countries

4.1 Introduction – matching excess mortality with foreign occupation; followed by detailed summaries of the histories of each country with quantitation of major avoidable mortality episodes:

4.2 Overseas Europe – internal democracy, external violence;

4.3 Western Europe – participation in colonial, neo-colonial and US-led “democratic imperialist” wars;

4.4 Eastern Europe – Communism, foreign occupation and tyranny but peace and good social services;

4.5 Summary

Chapter 5. Latin America and the Caribbean – from European invasion, genocide and slavery to US hegemony

5.1 Overview; followed by detailed summaries of the histories of each country with quantitation of major avoidable mortality episodes:

5.2 Latin American and Caribbean histories;

5.3 Summary

Chapter 6. North Africa, Asia & Pacific – the impact of colonialism, neo-colonialism and war

6.1 Overview; followed by detailed summaries of the histories of each country with quantitation of major avoidable mortality episodes:

6.2 East Asia – recovery from First World-imposed war and sanctions;

6.3 Turkey, Iran and Central Asia - Russian occupation, US interference, war and peace;

6.4 Arab North Africa and Middle East – Anglo-American, French and Israeli war and occupation;

6.5 South East Asia – colonialism, colonial wars, US-driven war and militarization; 6.6 The Pacific – colonialism, disease, war and maladministration;

6.7 South Asia – the disastrous legacy of rapacious British imperialism;

6.8 Summary

Chapter 7. Non-Arab Africa – colonialism, neo-colonialism, militarism, debt, economic constraint and incompetence

7.1 Overview of the continuing African tragedy; followed by detailed summaries of the histories of each country with quantitation of major avoidable mortality episodes: 7.2 Short histories of the countries of Non-Arab Africa;

7.3 Summary

Chapter 8. Synthesis, conclusions and suggestions

8.1 Finding causes and solutions;

8.2 Risk management;

8.3 Violent versus non-violent death;

8.4 The ruler is responsible for the ruled;

8.5 Passive genocide in Occupied Iraq and Afghanistan;

8.6 Genocide;

8.7 Famine;

8.8 Disease;

8.9 Human cost of occupation;

8.10 High technology war, horrendous civilian/invader death ratios and PC racism; 8.11 Killing by default – arms, debt, globalization and economic constraint;

8.12 Excuses for war and the War on Terror;

8.13 Feminist perspective - right to life, women and allo-mothering;

8.14 Academic, media, political and sectarian lying;

8.15 Conclusions and suggestions – how to save the world

Section 9. Notes

Notes for the Preamble and Chapters 1-8.

Section 10. Bibliography.

3. Brief description of each chapter/section:

The preamble contains title page, table of contents, detailed contents (chapter, sub-headings and tables), key quotes and a succinct preface.

Chapter 1 summarizes the overall thrust of the book, specifically that history ignored yields history repeated. The deadly consequences of tardy reportage of the WW2 Jewish Holocaust and the general non-reportage of the WW2 Bengal Famine (holocaust denial) (see Gideon Polya’s Jane Austen and the Black Hole of British History), are used to support the argument that non-reportage of global avoidable mortality ensures its continuance. Thus the non-reported 1950-2005 avoidable mortality has totaled 1.3 billion for the world, 1.2 billion for the non-European world and 0.6 billion for the Muslim world – a Muslim Holocaust 100 times greater than the WW2 Jewish Holocaust (6 million victims) or the “forgotten” WW2 Bengal Famine in British-ruled India (4 million victims).

Chapter 2 deals with the methodology used and presents detailed Tables summarizing regional and national avoidable mortality, under-5 infant mortality and other key demographic parameters and social indicators. The tables are organized by region in ascending order of post-1950 avoidable mortality. The best avoidable mortality outcomes have been in European countries and the worst in South Asia and non-Arab Africa. A useful way of comparing avoidable mortality outcomes is by “1950-2005 avoidable mortality”/“2005 population” ratios expressed as a percentage e.g. 2.9% for Australia but an appalling 81.0% for East Timor. The average “1950-2005 avoidable mortality”/ “2000 population ratio” in increasing order for the major global groupings is as follows: 2.7% (Overseas Europe) < st="on">atin America and Caribbean) < style=""> 27.3% (the Pacific) < style="" lang="EN-US">

Chapter 3 specifically addresses the correlates and causes of post-1950 avoidable mortality. Avoidable mortality correlates with foreign occupation which simply ensures rulers with decreased intrinsic regard for the ruled. Avoidable mortality provides a key measure of how rulers regard their domestic and foreign subjects and has been used to quantify the intrinsic racism of past and present imperialist powers. The surprising result is that the worst avoidable mortality-based “intrinsic racism scores” for the major First World “occupiers” have been for the Netherlands, Israel and Portugal and the best score for Russia, with the results for the UK, France and the US in between.

Chapters 4 to 7 provide detailed, summary “occupation histories” of all the countries of the world together with precise estimates for each country of avoidable mortality and under-5 infant mortality for particular post-1950 periods. The reader will be shocked by the magnitude of the actual human cost of specific post-1950 wars, occupations and other events as illustrated by the following three examples.

The post-invasion avoidable mortality in the Occupied Palestinian, Iraqi and Afghan Territories totals 0.3, 1.0 and 2.4 million, respectively, and the post-invasion under-5 infant mortality totals 0.2, 0.5 and 1.9 million, respectively (as of mid-2007). Avoidable mortality and under-5 infant mortality reached a minimum in post-colonial Iraq but doubled after the return of Western forces with sanctions in 1990 and have remained high ever since – the post-1990 avoidable mortality and under-5 infant mortality in Iraq now total 2.7 million and 1.7 million, respectively.

Similar avoidable carnage but for reasons of First World-complicit incompetent indigenous governance has occurred in Southern Africa in the post-Apartheid era. Careful inspection of the dynamics of avoidable mortality reveals that avoidable mortality increased dramatically in South Africa and its neighbours in the mid-1990s due to the utterly preventable HIV/AIDS epidemic. The percentage of the population now HIV positive (2003) is 20.6% (Swaziland), 19.9% (Botswana), 17.9% (Lesotho), 14.1% (Zimbabwe), 11.9% (South Africa), 10.7% (Namibia), 8.6% (Zambia) and 7.0% (Mozambique).

At the other end of the scale, relative to other European countries there has been markedly higher than average avoidable mortality in some Central and Eastern European countries subject to post-war Soviet occupation (specifically Austria, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Germany, Hungary, Latvia and the Ukraine). Thus, while Hungary has one of the best post-1950 under-5 infant mortality outcomes in the world, it has the worst post-1950 avoidable mortality outcome for any European country (1.4 million avoidable deaths since 1950 and currently 35,000 annually). Possible explanations for the excessive avoidable mortality in Hungary (and these other “frontline” countries also subject to partial or complete Soviet occupation in the post-war era) include smoking, drinking, depression, pollution, economically depressed Roma minorities and non-reported deliberate or accidental radiological contamination.

Chapter 8 provides a detailed summary of the causes of avoidable mortality including war, occupation, deprivation, famine, disease, genocide and passive genocide. Avoidable mortality is fundamentally caused by violence, deprivation, disease and lying. Requisite responses to man-made mass mortality include Cessation, Acknowledgement, Apology, Amends and Assertion of non-repetition (acronym: CAAAA or C4A) as exemplified by post-Holocaust Germany; this book attempts to at least enable “Acknowledgment” of the ongoing, First World-complicit avoidable mortality holocaust (16 million avoidable deaths per year – 44,000 per day - due to deprivation-related causes). Carefully considered, low cost, practical and humanitarian suggestions are made for halting the global avoidable mortality holocaust.

A Chapter 8 Appendix composed of 12 detailed Tables 8.1-8.12 summarizes the roughly current state of play (2003) for all regions and countries of the World in relation to the following parameters: mortality, excess mortality, under-5 infant mortality, mortality/population, excess mortality/population, under-5 infant mortality/population, under-5 infants/population, “annual under-5 infant death rate”, and % HIV positive.

Each of the above sections commences with 5 carefully chosen quotations that capture the essence of the book or its specific chapters. Each chapter is split into numbered and entitled sub-sections and concludes with a carefully constructed summary. For ease of reading and efficiency, all documenting references and notes are indicated by superscript numbers and listed in Section 9. The Bibliography Section 10 lists all works quoted in Section 9 in a consistent fashion e.g. author(s), year, title, publisher, city (for books); author(s), year, title, journal, volume, pages (for journal articles); and similarly defined documentation for other references (notably URLs for Web-accessible documents).

There is no Subject Index because the book has been carefully designed with a comprehensive Detailed Contents section and with systematically Alphabetized historical contents. “Body Count” represents both a powerful humanitarian statement and a key reference work for students, scholars, journalists, the general public and humanitarian activists.

4. People who would benefit from the “Body Count” resource

This book is special, original and important in that it is the ONLY work available that comprehensively quantifies the horrendous global human avoidable mortality and under-5 infant mortality that has occurred over the last half century and is still occurring unchecked. It is also a very useful reference resource in that it is the only book currently available (as far as I know) that provides a detailed summary history for every country in the world from the Neolithic era to the present.

This book by a humanist biological scientist is a relatively dispassionate scientific catalogue and analysis of an appalling human reality that the world comprehensively ignores, namely global avoidable mortality. The book represents an encyclopaedic, quantitative resource for students, scholars, journalists and the general public and an unanswerable moral weapon for humanitarian activists in all countries.

People who would particularly benefit from Body Count” include senior high school students, undergraduate and postgraduate university students and scholars. The academic areas that this book relates to include history (general and specific areas), economics (environmental economics, world trade), commerce, management (risk management), business, law (international law), sociology (racism, feminism, conflict), women’s studies, biology (disease, human ecology, biological sustainability), medicine (epidemiology, risk management), journalism, media studies and politics (political science).

This book is designed for ordinary citizens in all walks of life. Thus I have recently given a 16 lecture course based on this book and entitled “Science, History and Avoidable Mortality” to a University of the Third Age (U3A) class of retired citizens from many former occupations – teaching, science, librarianship, secretarial, armed services, medicine, nursing, surgery, management, business and academia.

In addition to the UK and the British Commonwealth there would be a very large potential readership in North America in particular. Thus there is a wonderful, humane North American constituency that is committed to the “equality of man and the unalienable right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness” and which is profoundly opposed to war.

Many in Latin America, Africa, Asia and the Pacific would find “Body Count” useful. In particular the huge population of educated, English-speaking Indians and Chinese should find utility in a detailed reference book quantitatively exposing the impact of the First World on the non-European world.

This book provides a wealth of quantitative data, thoughtful analysis and radical insights for students, scholars and humanitarian activists who demand humane global change but are enmeshed in a dominant global culture of comprehensive DENIAL. The dominant, prosperous, “politically correct racist” First World societies DENY their intrinsic racism, ignore the global carnage in which they are complicit and demonize their victims.

5. Related books

There are no such books about global avoidable mortality although there are many books dealing with specific conflict areas (e.g. the Iraq War) that constitute only a small part of my book. Thus Richard Hil and Paul Wilson have recently published “Dead Bodies Don’t Count: Civilian Casualties and the Forgotten Costs of the Iraq Conflict” (Zeus Publishing, Australia, 2007). Jared Diamond’s “Guns, Germs and Steel” deals in part with some major mass mortality events covered in parts of my book ( the Black Death and the effects of introduced disease in the Americas, Australasia and the Pacific).

Published books that come closest in subject matter to my book are some excellent books on past genocides [Chalk, F. & Jonassohn, K. (1990), The History and Sociology of Genocide. Analyses and Case Studies (Yale University Press, New Haven); Laqueur, W. (1980), The Terrible Secret. Suppression of the Truth about Hitler’s “Final Solution” (Penguin, London, 1982);

Wasserstein, B. (1979), Britain and the Jews of Europe 1939-1945 (Oxford University Press, 1988)], famine [Davis, M. (2001), Late Victorian Holocausts: El Nino Famines and the Making of the Third World (Verso, London); Greenough, P.R. (1982), Prosperity and Misery in Modern Bengal: the Famine of 1943-1944 (Oxford University Press, Oxford & New York); Polya, G.M. (1998), Jane Austen and the Black Hole of British History. Colonial rapacity, holocaust denial and the crisis in biological sustainability (Polya, Melbourne)] and the historical genesis of genocidal European racism [Lindqvist, S. (1992), Exterminate All the Brutes (Granta Books, London, 2002)] – all matters summarized quantitatively in my book with reference to these and many other works. However NONE of these books even touch on the 1.3 billion post-1950 avoidable mortality holocaust.

Various recent books and articles by humane writers such as John Pilger, Arundhati Roy, Noam Chomsky, Tariq Ali, George Monbiot, Scott Ritter, Edward Said, Paul Roberts, John Perkins, Emmanuel Todd and William Blum reveal much about the dishonesty and violence of post-war US and related imperialism but do not provide comprehensive quantitation of the human cost. My book does not go into the details of violent deaths and political machinations – it is simply largely concerned with the war- and occupation-related avoidable mortality of which violent death can be a relatively small part. My book provides a detailed statistical and historical complement to the works of these other writers.

In writing Chapters 4-7 of this book I would have loved to have been able to refer to a succinct summary of world history from about 2000BC onwards [the best I could find, albeit an account that finished in mid-1952, was Langer, W.L. (1953), An Encyclopaedia of World History (Harrap, London)] and the best such compendium of more recent Third World history finished in about 1990 [Bissio, R.R. (1990), Third World Guide 91/92 (Instituto del Tercer Mondo, Montevideo)].

I am not aware of any other current history book that succinctly summarizes the history of all countries in the world from the Neolithic era to 2005 (as is achieved by Chapters 4-7 of my book). No other book even attempts to deal with post-1950 avoidable mortality and under-5 infant mortality, let alone in a comprehensive fashion.

6. Brief CV of Dr Gideon Polya

Gideon Polya was born in Melbourne, Australia in 1944 and raised in Hobart, Tasmania. A graduate of the University of Tasmania, he gained a PhD in Biochemistry from Flinders University in Adelaide, South Australia. After postdoctoral research at Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, he returned to the Australian National University as a Queen Elizabeth II Fellow and thence took up a position at La Trobe University, Melbourne in 1972. In 2003 he retired from a senior position at La Trobe University but returned in 2007 to deliver a big second year science subject (Biochemistry for Agricultural Science students).

Dr Gideon Polya published some 130 works in a 4 decade scientific career (search Google Advanced Scholar for many of these publications), most recently a huge pharmacological reference text "Biochemical Targets of Plant Bioactive Compounds. A pharmacological reference guide to sites of action and biological effects" (860 pages; 500 pages of tables; 4 indexes; Taylor & Francis/CRC Press, London & New York, 2003). In 1998 he published “Jane Austen and the Black Hole of British History. Colonial rapacity, holocaust denial and the crisis in biological sustainability” (Polya, Melbourne).

In recent years, in addition to writing “Body Count”, Dr Polya has written extensively about global avoidable mortality (numerous articles on this and related matters can be found by a simple Google search for "Gideon Polya" and on his websites: http://members.optusnet.com.au/~gpolya/links.html , http://globalavoidablemortality.blogspot.com/ , http://mwcnews.net/content/view/1375/247/ , http://gpolya.newsvine.com/ and http://gideon.sulekha.com/default.htm ).

Gideon Polya is married with 3 children. A keen artist he has published numerous cartoons (including illustrations for a statistics textbook), has painted a thousand paintings (abstract figurative and landscapes) and has drawn thousands of portraits.

Humanitarian Words having evidently failed (16 million people die avoidably each year i.e. 44,000 each day) Gideon Polya recently turned to Painting for Peace, painting HUGE works to spread a message of Peace, Love and respect for Woman and for Mother and Child, including: Sydney Madonna, Manhattan Madonna, Truelove, Melbourne Madonna, Qana (conceptually related to Pablo Picasso’s 1937 antiwar masterpiece Guernica about the Nazi bombing of the town of the same name), Isfahan Matisse, and Alhambra Pollock(that is explained by the Acronym PEACE – Pólya, Escher, Alhambra, Cultural Ecumenism). I would be delighted if you would pass on these links on to your friends, colleagues, associates and local media in the interests of Peace, Amity and respect for Woman, Mother and Child (see: http://sites.google.com/site/artforpeaceplanetmotherchild/ and http://www.flickr.com/photos/gideonpolya/ .)

7 . Inquiries about “Body Count”

Inquiries about “Body Count” can be addressed to G.M. Polya at: gpolya@bigpond.com or to 29 Dwyer Street, Macleod, Melbourne, Victoria, 3085, Australia.