Chapter 2. Tables 2.6-2.12 & Summary

Table 2.6 Excess mortality and under-5 infant mortality in East Asia

COUNTRY	EM (m)	IM (m)	POP (m)	MORT (m)	EM/ POP (%)	EM/ MORT (%)	IM/ POP (%)	IM/ MORT (%)	LE (yr)	PCI US$	LIT (%)
China	155.670	157.726	1322.273	504.199	11.8	30.9	11.9	31.3	71	1,100	85
Hong Kong	0.125	0.105	7.182	1.445	1.7	8.7	1.5	7.3
Macao	0.036	0.007	0.472	0.107	7.6	33.6	1.4	6.3
Taiwan	0.560	0.459	22.894	5.268	2.4	10.6	2.0	8.7
Japan	3.596	2.452	127.914	43.718	2.8	8.2	1.9	5.6	82	34,510	~98
North Korea	2.945	1.559	22.876	8.225	12.9	35.8	6.8	19.0	63	~500	98
South Korea	5.013	3.085	48.182	15.568	10.4	32.2	6.4	19.8	76	12,030	98
Mongolia	0.640	0.402	2.667	0.989	24.0	64.7	15.0	40.6	64	480	98
TOTAL	168.585	165.795	1544.460	579.519	10.9	29.1	10.7	28.6

Notes. Abbreviations for Tables 2.6 are as for Tables 2.1 and 2.2.

Table 2.7 Excess mortality and under-5 infant mortality in Turkey, Iran and Central Asia

COUNTRY	EM (m)	IM (m)	POP (m)	MORT (m)	EM/ POP (%)	EM/ MORT (%)	IM/ POP (%)	IM/ MORT (%)	LE (yr)	PCI ($)	LIT (%)
Afghanistan	16.609	11.514	25.971	19.739	64.0	84.1	44.3	58.3	43	~250	36
Azerbaijan	0.428	1.032	8.527	2.222	5.0	19.3	12.1	46.4	72	810	~97
Iran	14.272	10.875	70.675	21.710	20.2	65.7	15.4	50.1	70	2,000	76
Kazakhstan	0.983	1.661	15.364	7.147	6.4	13.8	10.8	23.2	67	1,780	~98
Kyrgyzstan	1.041	0.657	5.278	1.800	19.7	57.8	12.4	36.5	69	330	~98
Tajikistan	0.924	0.739	6.356	1.771	14.5	52.2	11.6	41.7	69	190	~98
Turkey	10.488	10.987	73.302	25.381	14.3	41.3	15.0	43.3	71	2,790	85
Turkmenistan	0.817	0.591	5.015	1.443	16.3	56.6	11.8	41.0	67	1,120	~98
Uzbekistan	3.585	2.403	26.868	7.003	13.3	51.2	8.9	34.3	70	420	~98
TOTAL	49.147	40.459	237.356	88.216	20.7	55.7	17.0	45.9

Notes. Abbreviations for Tables 2.6 are as for Tables 2.1 and 2.2. Mongolia is conveniently included with East Asia (Table 2.6).

Table 2.8 Excess mortality and under-5 infant mortality in Arab North Africa and Middle East

COUNTRY	EM (m)	IM (m)	POP (m)	MORT (m)	EM/ POP (%)	EM/ MORT (%)	IM/ POP (%)	IM/ MORT (%)	LE (yr)	PCI ($)	LIT (%)
Algeria	7.167	5.812	32.877	11.302	21.8	63.4	17.7	51.4	70	1,890	67
Bahrain	0.054	0.033	0.754	0.111	7.2	48.6	4.4	29.7	74	~10,.840	88
Egypt	19.818	14.143	74.878	29.533	26.5	67.1	18.9	47.9	69	1,.390	55
Iraq	5.283	3.446	26.555	8.288	19.9	63.7	13.0	41.5	61	~2,170	39
Jordan	0.630	0.331	5.750	1.166	11.0	54.0	5.8	28.4	71	1,.850	90
Kuwait	0.089	0.076	2.671	0.215	3.3	41.4	2.8	35.3	77	~16,.340	82
Lebanon	0.535	0.236	3.761	1.285	14.2	41.6	6.3	18.4	74	4,040	86
Libya	0.785	0.626	5.768	1.478	13.6	53.1	10.9	42.4	73	~5,540	80
Morocco	8.202	5.098	31.564	12.401	26.0	66.1	16.2	41.1	69	1,320	49
Occupied Palestinian Territories	0.677	0.295	3.815	1.061	17.7	63.8	7.7	27.8	73	1,100	~98
Oman	0.359	0.288	3.020	0.589	11.9	61.0	9.5	48.9	73	~7,830	72
Qatar	0.029	0.013	0.628	0.080	4.6	36.3	2.1	16.3	72	~12,000	94
Saudi Arabia	2.752	2.085	25.626	4.974	10.7	55.3	8.1	41.9	72	~8,530	76
Sudan	13.471	6.225	35.040	17.754	38.4	75.9	17.8	35.1	56	460	58
Syria	2.198	1.718	18.650	4.202	11.8	52.3	9.2	40.9	72	1,160	74
Tunisia	1.582	1.568	10.042	3.530	15.8	44.8	15.6	44.4	73	2.,240	71
United Arab Emirates	0.087	0.046	3.106	0.233	2.8	37.3	1.5	19.7	75	~18,060	76
Yemen	6.798	5.135	21.480	8.899	31.6	76.4	23.9	57.7	60	520	46
TOTAL	70.516	47.174	305.985	107.101	23.0	65.8	15.4	44.0

Notes. Abbreviations are as for Tables 2.1 and 2.2. Notwithstanding a substantial Arab population and a substantial Jewish population deriving from Arab countries, Israel has been conveniently included with “Overseas” Europe in Table 2.2.

Table 2.9 Excess mortality and under-5 infant mortality in South East Asia

COUNTRY	EM (m)	IM (m)	POP (m)	MORT (m)	EM/ POP (%)	EM/ MORT (%)	IM/ POP (%)	IM/ MORT (%)	LE (yr)	PCI ($)	LIT (%)
Brunei	0.020	0.011	0.374	0.047	5.3	42.6	2.9	23.4	76	~24,100	92
Cambodia	5.852	3.180	14.825	7.634	39.5	76.7	21.5	41.7	57	310	68
Indonesia	71.521	34.516	225.313	103.580	31.7	69.0	15.3	33.3	67	610	87
Laos	2.653	1.383	5.918	3.394	44.8	78.2	23.4	40.7	55	320	65
Malaysia	2.344	1.176	25.325	5.891	9.3	39.8	4.6	20.0	73	3,780	87
Myanmar	20.174	9.992	50.696	27.362	39.8	73.7	19.7	36.5	57	220	85
Philippines	9.080	6.665	82.809	22.064	11.0	41.2	8.0	30.2	70	1,080	95
Singapore	0.113	0.061	4.372	0.781	2.6	14.5	1.4	7.8	78	21,230	92
Thailand	3.756	5.442	64.081	16.947	5.9	22.2	8.5	32.1	69	2,190	96
Timor-Leste	0.694	0.236	0.857	0.833	81.0	83.3	27.5	28.3	50	430	~70
Vietnam	24.015	8.830	83.585	35.785	28.7	67.1	10.6	24.7	69	480	93
TOTAL	140.222	71.492	558.155	224.318	25.1	62.5	12.8	31.9

Notes. Abbreviations are as for Tables 2.1 and 2.2.

Table 2.10 Excess mortality and under-5 infant mortality in the Pacific

Country	EM (m)	IM (m)	POP (m)	MORT (m)	EM/ POP (%)	EM/ MORT (%)	IM/ POP (%)	IM/ MORT (%)	LE (yr)	PCI ($)	LIT (%)
Fiji	0.054	0.056	0.854	0.232	6.3	23.3	6.6	24.1	70	2,360	93
Guam	0.005	0.008	0.168	0.029	3.0	17.2	4.9	28.3
Federated States of Micronesia	0.016	0.007	0.111	0.032	14.4	50.0	6.6	22.8	69	2,090	67
French Polynesia	0.018	0.003	0.252	0.057	7.1	31.6	1.5	6.5
New Caledonia	0.017	0.003	0.237	0.054	7.2	31.5	1.3	5.6
Papua New Guinea	2.091	0.918	5.959	2.823	35.1	74.1	15.4	32.5	58	510	64
Samoa	0.039	0.034	0.182	0.071	21.4	54.9	18.7	47.9	70	1,600	~98
Solomon Islands	0.050	0.036	0.504	0.103	9.9	48.5	7.1	35.0	69	600
Tonga	0.020	0.020	0.106	0.039	18.9	51.3	18.9	51.3	69	1,490	~98
Vanuatu	0.037	0.029	0.222	0.063	16.7	58.7	13.1	46.0	69	1,180	~98
TOTAL	2.347	1.114	8.595	3.503	27.3	67.0	13.0	31.8

Notes. Abbreviations are as for Tables 2.1 and 2.2. The tiny Pacific states of Tuvalu, Kiribati, Palau, American Samoa, Pitcairn Island, the Marshall Islands and Nauru are not included.

Table 2.11 Excess mortality and under-5 infant mortality in South Asia

Country	EM (m)	IM (m)	POP (m)	MORT (m)	EM/ POP (%)	EM/ MORT (%)	IM/ POP (%)	IM/ MORT (%)	LE (yr)	PCI ($)	LIT (%)
Bangladesh	51.196	32.908	152.593	72.853	33.6	70.3	21.6	45.2	62	400	40
Bhutan	0.908	0.597	2.392	1.204	38.0	75.4	25.0	49.6	63	660	47
India	351.900	214.260	1096.917	506.769	32.1	69.4	19.5	42.3	64	530	57
Maldives	0.015	0.012	0.338	0.023	4.4	65.2	3.6	52.2	68	2,300	97
Nepal	10.650	6.213	26.289	14.005	40.5	76.0	23.6	44.4	60	240	42
Pakistan	49.700	29.407	161.151	68.387	30.8	72.7	18.2	43.0	61	470	43
Sri Lanka	0.951	1.400	19.366	5.874	4.9	16.2	7.2	23.8	73	930	92
TOTAL	465.320	284.797	1459.046	669.115	31.9	69.5	19.5	42.6

Notes. Abbreviations are as for Tables 2.1 and 2.2.

Table 2.12 Excess mortality and under-5 infant mortality in non-Arab Africa

Country	EM (m)	IM (m)	POP (m)	MORT (m)	EM/ POP (%)	EM/ MORT (%)	IM/ POP (%)	IM/ MORT (%)	LE (yr)	PCI US$	LIT (%)
Angola	9.207	6.002	14.533	10.648	63.4	86.5	41.3	56.4	40	740	~40
Benin	3.267	2.093	7.103	4.086	46.0	80.0	29.5	51.2	51	440	37
Botswana	0.443	0.236	1.801	0.664	24.6	66.7	13.1	35.5	39	3,430	77
Burkina Faso	6.810	4.793	13.798	8.399	49.4	81.1	34.7	57.1	46	300	24
Burundi	4.097	2.263	7.319	4.950	56.0	82.8	30.9	45.7	41	100	48
Cameroon	6.669	3.818	16.564	8.663	40.3	77.0	23.0	44.1	46	640	71
Cape Verde	0.099	0.061	0.482	0.162	20.5	61.1	12.7	37.7	70	1,490	74
Central African Republic	2.274	1.199	3.962	2.793	57.4	81.4	30.3	42.9	40	260	47
Chad	5.085	2.989	9.117	6.143	55.8	82.8	32.8	48.7	45	250	43
Comoros	0.204	0.149	0.812	0.293	25.1	69.6	18.3	50.9	61	450	56
Congo (Brazzaville)	1.085	0.619	3.921	1.506	27.7	72.0	15.8	41.1	48	640	81
Congo (Zaire)	26.677	17.425	56.079	33.200	47.6	80.4	31.1	52.5	42	100	61
Côte d’Ivoire	6.953	4.196	17.165	8.860	40.5	79.0	24.4	47.4	41	660	49
Djibouti	0.265	0.141	0.721	0.335	36.8	79.1	19.6	42.1	46	910	65
Equatorial Guinea	0.305	0.168	0.521	0.383	58.5	79.6	32.2	43.9	49	~930	83
Eritrea	1.757	1.036	4.456	2.284	39.4	76.9	23.2	45.4	53	190	56
Ethiopia	36.133	21.590	74.189	44.964	48.7	80.4	29.1	48.0	46	90	39
Gabon	0.504	0.186	1.375	0.671	36.7	75.1	13.5	27.7	57	3,580	71
Gambia	0.606	0.363	1.499	0.762	40.4	79.5	24.2	47.6	54	310	37
Ghana	6.089	3.972	21.833	8.667	27.9	70.3	18.2	45.8	58	320	72
Guinea	5.185	3.611	8.788	6.278	59.0	82.6	41.1	57.5	49	430	41
Guinea-Bissau	0.945	0.611	1.584	1.128	59.7	83.8	38.6	54.2	45	140	38
Kenya	10.015	5.358	32.849	13.732	30.5	72.9	16.3	39.0	38	390	44
Lesotho	0.951	0.386	1.797	1.225	52.9	77.6	21.5	31.5	35	590	83
Liberia	1.754	1.209	3.603	2.148	48.7	81.7	33.6	56.3	41	130	54
Madagascar	7.098	3.867	18.409	9.170	38.6	77.4	21.0	42.2	54	290	67
Malawi	6.976	4.794	12.572	8.425	55.5	82.8	38.1	56.9	38	170	60
Mali	6.808	6.438	13.829	8.407	49.2	81.0	46.6	76.6	49	290	26
Mauritania	1.294	0.848	3.069	1.655	42.2	78.2	27.6	51.2	53	430	40
Mauritius	0.064	0.078	1.244	0.377	5.1	17.0	6.3	20.7	72	4,090	85
Mozambique	12.462	7.200	19.495	15.034	63.9	82.9	36.9	47.9	38	210	44
Namibia	0.672	0.281	2.032	0.912	33.1	73.7	13.8	30.8	44	1,870	82
Niger	6.558	5.674	12.873	7.874	50.9	83.3	44.1	72.1	46	200	16
Nigeria	49.737	38.297	130.236	64.395	38.2	77.2	29.4	59.5	51	320	64
Réunion	0.047	0.041	0.777	0.194	6.0	24.2	5.3	21.1
Rwanda	5.190	2.577	8.607	6.245	60.3	83.1	29.9	41.3	39	220	67
Sao Tome & Principe	0.039	0.033	0.169	0.060	23.1	65.0	19.5	55.0	70	320
Senegal	4.457	2.770	9.393	5.699	47.5	78.2	29.5	48.6	53	550	37
Sierra Leone	4.548	2.846	5.340	5.279	85.2	86.2	53.3	53.9	34	150	36
Somalia	5.568	3.582	10.742	6.681	51.8	83.3	33.3	53.6	48	130
South Africa	13.534	4.623	45.323	19.822	29.9	68.3	10.2	23.3	47	2,780	85
Swaziland	0.471	0.233	1.087	0.607	43.3	77.6	21.4	38.4	34	1,350	80
Tanzania	14.682	8.991	38.365	19.017	38.3	77.2	23.4	47.3	43	290	75
Togo	1.950	1.186	5.129	2.540	38.0	76.8	23.1	46.7	50	310	57
Uganda	11.121	6.301	27.623	14.032	40.3	79.3	22.8	44.9	47	240	67
Western Sahara	0.063	0.052	0.324	0.095	19.4	66.3	16.0	54.7
Zambia	5.463	2.848	11.043	6.276	49.5	87.0	25.8	45.4	33	380	78
Zimbabwe	4.653	1.800	12.963	6.376	35.9	73.0	13.9	28.2	33	~480	89
TOTAL	300.834	189.834	696.515	382.116	43.2	78.7	27.3	49.7

Notes. Abbreviations are as for Tables 2.1 and 2.2. Not included are Diego Garcia (largely depopulated by the UK and US for global warfare reasons) and the Seychelles.

2.9 Summary

Excess mortality (avoidable mortality) for a given country for a given period is the difference between the ACTUAL mortality and the deaths EXPECTED for a decently run, peaceful country with the same demographics. Using United Nations Population Division demographic data going back to 1950 (the 2002 Revision), it was possible to make base-line estimates of expected mortality for various demographically distinct groups. For many Third World countries the base-line mortality estimates clustered about 4 deaths per 1,000 of population. Excess mortality was calculated for all countries in the world in pentades (5 year periods) from 1950-2005 (actually from mid-1950-mid-2005) and the results were tabulated in various regional groupings together with corroborative and independent estimates of under-5 infant mortality and life expectancy, annual per capita income and adult literacy data. A useful comparative measure of excess mortality is obtained from the “post-1950 excess mortality/2000 population ratio” which averages as follows in increasing order for the major groupings: 2.7% (Overseas Europe) < 5.0% (Western Europe) < 7.5% (Eastern Europe) < 9.4% (Latin America and Caribbean) < 10.9% (East Asia) < 20.7% (Turkey, Iran and Central Asia) < 23.0 (Arab Middle East and North Africa) < 25.1 (South East Asia) < 27.3% (the Pacific) < 31.9% (South Asia) < 43.2% (non-Arab Africa). Post-1950 excess mortality increases with decreasing annual per capita income but excellent outcomes have been achieved in countries with relatively low per capita incomes of about $1,000-$2,000 (as compared to $38,000 for the US), namely Cuba, Fiji, the Maldives, Paraguay and Sri Lanka. Low excess mortality is associated with high adult literacy but very high post-1950 excess mortality can still occur in countries with adult literacy in excess of 80% e.g. Congo (Brazzaville), Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland and Zimbabwe. The post-1950 excess mortality correlates with war, occupation by First World countries and consequent increased disregard for the occupied by their rulers. The impact of foreign occupation is explored in subsequent Chapters.