Thursday, January 5, 2012

Chapter 2. Tables 2.6-2.12 & Summary

Table 2.6 Excess mortality and under-5 infant mortality in East Asia

COUNTRY

EM

(m)

IM

(m)

POP

(m)

MORT

(m)

EM/

POP

(%)

EM/

MORT

(%)

IM/

POP

(%)

IM/

MORT

(%)

LE

(yr)

PCI

US$

LIT

(%)

China

155.670

157.726

1322.273

504.199

11.8

30.9

11.9

31.3

71

1,100

85

Hong Kong

0.125

0.105

7.182

1.445

1.7

8.7

1.5

7.3

Macao

0.036

0.007

0.472

0.107

7.6

33.6

1.4

6.3

Taiwan

0.560

0.459

22.894

5.268

2.4

10.6

2.0

8.7

Japan

3.596

2.452

127.914

43.718

2.8

8.2

1.9

5.6

82

34,510

~98

North Korea

2.945

1.559

22.876

8.225

12.9

35.8

6.8

19.0

63

~500

98

South Korea

5.013

3.085

48.182

15.568

10.4

32.2

6.4

19.8

76

12,030

98

Mongolia

0.640

0.402

2.667

0.989

24.0

64.7

15.0

40.6

64

480

98

TOTAL

168.585

165.795

1544.460

579.519

10.9

29.1

10.7

28.6

Notes. Abbreviations for Tables 2.6 are as for Tables 2.1 and 2.2.

Table 2.7 Excess mortality and under-5 infant mortality in Turkey, Iran and Central Asia

COUNTRY

EM

(m)

IM

(m)

POP

(m)

MORT

(m)

EM/

POP

(%)

EM/

MORT

(%)

IM/

POP

(%)

IM/

MORT

(%)

LE

(yr)

PCI

($)

LIT

(%)

Afghanistan

16.609

11.514

25.971

19.739

64.0

84.1

44.3

58.3

43

~250

36

Azerbaijan

0.428

1.032

8.527

2.222

5.0

19.3

12.1

46.4

72

810

~97

Iran

14.272

10.875

70.675

21.710

20.2

65.7

15.4

50.1

70

2,000

76

Kazakhstan

0.983

1.661

15.364

7.147

6.4

13.8

10.8

23.2

67

1,780

~98

Kyrgyzstan

1.041

0.657

5.278

1.800

19.7

57.8

12.4

36.5

69

330

~98

Tajikistan

0.924

0.739

6.356

1.771

14.5

52.2

11.6

41.7

69

190

~98

Turkey

10.488

10.987

73.302

25.381

14.3

41.3

15.0

43.3

71

2,790

85

Turkmenistan

0.817

0.591

5.015

1.443

16.3

56.6

11.8

41.0

67

1,120

~98

Uzbekistan

3.585

2.403

26.868

7.003

13.3

51.2

8.9

34.3

70

420

~98

TOTAL

49.147

40.459

237.356

88.216

20.7

55.7

17.0

45.9

Notes. Abbreviations for Tables 2.6 are as for Tables 2.1 and 2.2. Mongolia is conveniently included with East Asia (Table 2.6).

Table 2.8 Excess mortality and under-5 infant mortality in Arab North Africa and Middle East

COUNTRY

EM

(m)

IM

(m)

POP

(m)

MORT

(m)

EM/

POP

(%)

EM/

MORT

(%)

IM/

POP

(%)

IM/

MORT

(%)

LE

(yr)

PCI

($)

LIT

(%)

Algeria

7.167

5.812

32.877

11.302

21.8

63.4

17.7

51.4

70

1,890

67

Bahrain

0.054

0.033

0.754

0.111

7.2

48.6

4.4

29.7

74

~10,.840

88

Egypt

19.818

14.143

74.878

29.533

26.5

67.1

18.9

47.9

69

1,.390

55

Iraq

5.283

3.446

26.555

8.288

19.9

63.7

13.0

41.5

61

~2,170

39

Jordan

0.630

0.331

5.750

1.166

11.0

54.0

5.8

28.4

71

1,.850

90

Kuwait

0.089

0.076

2.671

0.215

3.3

41.4

2.8

35.3

77

~16,.340

82

Lebanon

0.535

0.236

3.761

1.285

14.2

41.6

6.3

18.4

74

4,040

86

Libya

0.785

0.626

5.768

1.478

13.6

53.1

10.9

42.4

73

~5,540

80

Morocco

8.202

5.098

31.564

12.401

26.0

66.1

16.2

41.1

69

1,320

49

Occupied Palestinian

Territories

0.677

0.295

3.815

1.061

17.7

63.8

7.7

27.8

73

1,100

~98

Oman

0.359

0.288

3.020

0.589

11.9

61.0

9.5

48.9

73

~7,830

72

Qatar

0.029

0.013

0.628

0.080

4.6

36.3

2.1

16.3

72

~12,000

94

Saudi Arabia

2.752

2.085

25.626

4.974

10.7

55.3

8.1

41.9

72

~8,530

76

Sudan

13.471

6.225

35.040

17.754

38.4

75.9

17.8

35.1

56

460

58

Syria

2.198

1.718

18.650

4.202

11.8

52.3

9.2

40.9

72

1,160

74

Tunisia

1.582

1.568

10.042

3.530

15.8

44.8

15.6

44.4

73

2.,240

71

United Arab Emirates

0.087

0.046

3.106

0.233

2.8

37.3

1.5

19.7

75

~18,060

76

Yemen

6.798

5.135

21.480

8.899

31.6

76.4

23.9

57.7

60

520

46

TOTAL

70.516

47.174

305.985

107.101

23.0

65.8

15.4

44.0

Notes. Abbreviations are as for Tables 2.1 and 2.2. Notwithstanding a substantial Arab population and a substantial Jewish population deriving from Arab countries, Israel has been conveniently included with “Overseas” Europe in Table 2.2.

Table 2.9 Excess mortality and under-5 infant mortality in South East Asia

COUNTRY

EM

(m)

IM

(m)

POP

(m)

MORT

(m)

EM/

POP

(%)

EM/

MORT

(%)

IM/

POP

(%)

IM/

MORT

(%)

LE

(yr)

PCI

($)

LIT

(%)

Brunei

0.020

0.011

0.374

0.047

5.3

42.6

2.9

23.4

76

~24,100

92

Cambodia

5.852

3.180

14.825

7.634

39.5

76.7

21.5

41.7

57

310

68

Indonesia

71.521

34.516

225.313

103.580

31.7

69.0

15.3

33.3

67

610

87

Laos

2.653

1.383

5.918

3.394

44.8

78.2

23.4

40.7

55

320

65

Malaysia

2.344

1.176

25.325

5.891

9.3

39.8

4.6

20.0

73

3,780

87

Myanmar

20.174

9.992

50.696

27.362

39.8

73.7

19.7

36.5

57

220

85

Philippines

9.080

6.665

82.809

22.064

11.0

41.2

8.0

30.2

70

1,080

95

Singapore

0.113

0.061

4.372

0.781

2.6

14.5

1.4

7.8

78

21,230

92

Thailand

3.756

5.442

64.081

16.947

5.9

22.2

8.5

32.1

69

2,190

96

Timor-Leste

0.694

0.236

0.857

0.833

81.0

83.3

27.5

28.3

50

430

~70

Vietnam

24.015

8.830

83.585

35.785

28.7

67.1

10.6

24.7

69

480

93

TOTAL

140.222

71.492

558.155

224.318

25.1

62.5

12.8

31.9

Notes. Abbreviations are as for Tables 2.1 and 2.2.

Table 2.10 Excess mortality and under-5 infant mortality in the Pacific

Country

EM

(m)

IM

(m)

POP

(m)

MORT

(m)

EM/

POP

(%)

EM/

MORT

(%)

IM/

POP

(%)

IM/

MORT

(%)

LE

(yr)

PCI

($)

LIT

(%)

Fiji

0.054

0.056

0.854

0.232

6.3

23.3

6.6

24.1

70

2,360

93

Guam

0.005

0.008

0.168

0.029

3.0

17.2

4.9

28.3

Federated States of Micronesia

0.016

0.007

0.111

0.032

14.4

50.0

6.6

22.8

69

2,090

67

French Polynesia

0.018

0.003

0.252

0.057

7.1

31.6

1.5

6.5

New Caledonia

0.017

0.003

0.237

0.054

7.2

31.5

1.3

5.6

Papua New Guinea

2.091

0.918

5.959

2.823

35.1

74.1

15.4

32.5

58

510

64

Samoa

0.039

0.034

0.182

0.071

21.4

54.9

18.7

47.9

70

1,600

~98

Solomon Islands

0.050

0.036

0.504

0.103

9.9

48.5

7.1

35.0

69

600

Tonga

0.020

0.020

0.106

0.039

18.9

51.3

18.9

51.3

69

1,490

~98

Vanuatu

0.037

0.029

0.222

0.063

16.7

58.7

13.1

46.0

69

1,180

~98

TOTAL

2.347

1.114

8.595

3.503

27.3

67.0

13.0

31.8

Notes. Abbreviations are as for Tables 2.1 and 2.2. The tiny Pacific states of Tuvalu, Kiribati, Palau, American Samoa, Pitcairn Island, the Marshall Islands and Nauru are not included.

Table 2.11 Excess mortality and under-5 infant mortality in South Asia

Country

EM

(m)

IM

(m)

POP

(m)

MORT

(m)

EM/

POP

(%)

EM/

MORT

(%)

IM/

POP

(%)

IM/

MORT

(%)

LE

(yr)

PCI

($)

LIT

(%)

Bangladesh

51.196

32.908

152.593

72.853

33.6

70.3

21.6

45.2

62

400

40

Bhutan

0.908

0.597

2.392

1.204

38.0

75.4

25.0

49.6

63

660

47

India

351.900

214.260

1096.917

506.769

32.1

69.4

19.5

42.3

64

530

57

Maldives

0.015

0.012

0.338

0.023

4.4

65.2

3.6

52.2

68

2,300

97

Nepal

10.650

6.213

26.289

14.005

40.5

76.0

23.6

44.4

60

240

42

Pakistan

49.700

29.407

161.151

68.387

30.8

72.7

18.2

43.0

61

470

43

Sri Lanka

0.951

1.400

19.366

5.874

4.9

16.2

7.2

23.8

73

930

92

TOTAL

465.320

284.797

1459.046

669.115

31.9

69.5

19.5

42.6

Notes. Abbreviations are as for Tables 2.1 and 2.2.

Table 2.12 Excess mortality and under-5 infant mortality in non-Arab Africa

Country

EM

(m)

IM

(m)

POP

(m)

MORT

(m)

EM/

POP

(%)

EM/

MORT

(%)

IM/

POP

(%)

IM/

MORT

(%)

LE

(yr)

PCI

US$

LIT

(%)

Angola

9.207

6.002

14.533

10.648

63.4

86.5

41.3

56.4

40

740

~40

Benin

3.267

2.093

7.103

4.086

46.0

80.0

29.5

51.2

51

440

37

Botswana

0.443

0.236

1.801

0.664

24.6

66.7

13.1

35.5

39

3,430

77

Burkina Faso

6.810

4.793

13.798

8.399

49.4

81.1

34.7

57.1

46

300

24

Burundi

4.097

2.263

7.319

4.950

56.0

82.8

30.9

45.7

41

100

48

Cameroon

6.669

3.818

16.564

8.663

40.3

77.0

23.0

44.1

46

640

71

Cape Verde

0.099

0.061

0.482

0.162

20.5

61.1

12.7

37.7

70

1,490

74

Central African Republic

2.274

1.199

3.962

2.793

57.4

81.4

30.3

42.9

40

260

47

Chad

5.085

2.989

9.117

6.143

55.8

82.8

32.8

48.7

45

250

43

Comoros

0.204

0.149

0.812

0.293

25.1

69.6

18.3

50.9

61

450

56

Congo (Brazzaville)

1.085

0.619

3.921

1.506

27.7

72.0

15.8

41.1

48

640

81

Congo (Zaire)

26.677

17.425

56.079

33.200

47.6

80.4

31.1

52.5

42

100

61

Côte d’Ivoire

6.953

4.196

17.165

8.860

40.5

79.0

24.4

47.4

41

660

49

Djibouti

0.265

0.141

0.721

0.335

36.8

79.1

19.6

42.1

46

910

65

Equatorial Guinea

0.305

0.168

0.521

0.383

58.5

79.6

32.2

43.9

49

~930

83

Eritrea

1.757

1.036

4.456

2.284

39.4

76.9

23.2

45.4

53

190

56

Ethiopia

36.133

21.590

74.189

44.964

48.7

80.4

29.1

48.0

46

90

39

Gabon

0.504

0.186

1.375

0.671

36.7

75.1

13.5

27.7

57

3,580

71

Gambia

0.606

0.363

1.499

0.762

40.4

79.5

24.2

47.6

54

310

37

Ghana

6.089

3.972

21.833

8.667

27.9

70.3

18.2

45.8

58

320

72

Guinea

5.185

3.611

8.788

6.278

59.0

82.6

41.1

57.5

49

430

41

Guinea-Bissau

0.945

0.611

1.584

1.128

59.7

83.8

38.6

54.2

45

140

38

Kenya

10.015

5.358

32.849

13.732

30.5

72.9

16.3

39.0

38

390

44

Lesotho

0.951

0.386

1.797

1.225

52.9

77.6

21.5

31.5

35

590

83

Liberia

1.754

1.209

3.603

2.148

48.7

81.7

33.6

56.3

41

130

54

Madagascar

7.098

3.867

18.409

9.170

38.6

77.4

21.0

42.2

54

290

67

Malawi

6.976

4.794

12.572

8.425

55.5

82.8

38.1

56.9

38

170

60

Mali

6.808

6.438

13.829

8.407

49.2

81.0

46.6

76.6

49

290

26

Mauritania

1.294

0.848

3.069

1.655

42.2

78.2

27.6

51.2

53

430

40

Mauritius

0.064

0.078

1.244

0.377

5.1

17.0

6.3

20.7

72

4,090

85

Mozambique

12.462

7.200

19.495

15.034

63.9

82.9

36.9

47.9

38

210

44

Namibia

0.672

0.281

2.032

0.912

33.1

73.7

13.8

30.8

44

1,870

82

Niger

6.558

5.674

12.873

7.874

50.9

83.3

44.1

72.1

46

200

16

Nigeria

49.737

38.297

130.236

64.395

38.2

77.2

29.4

59.5

51

320

64

Réunion

0.047

0.041

0.777

0.194

6.0

24.2

5.3

21.1

Rwanda

5.190

2.577

8.607

6.245

60.3

83.1

29.9

41.3

39

220

67

Sao Tome & Principe

0.039

0.033

0.169

0.060

23.1

65.0

19.5

55.0

70

320

Senegal

4.457

2.770

9.393

5.699

47.5

78.2

29.5

48.6

53

550

37

Sierra Leone

4.548

2.846

5.340

5.279

85.2

86.2

53.3

53.9

34

150

36

Somalia

5.568

3.582

10.742

6.681

51.8

83.3

33.3

53.6

48

130

South Africa

13.534

4.623

45.323

19.822

29.9

68.3

10.2

23.3

47

2,780

85

Swaziland

0.471

0.233

1.087

0.607

43.3

77.6

21.4

38.4

34

1,350

80

Tanzania

14.682

8.991

38.365

19.017

38.3

77.2

23.4

47.3

43

290

75

Togo

1.950

1.186

5.129

2.540

38.0

76.8

23.1

46.7

50

310

57

Uganda

11.121

6.301

27.623

14.032

40.3

79.3

22.8

44.9

47

240

67

Western Sahara

0.063

0.052

0.324

0.095

19.4

66.3

16.0

54.7

Zambia

5.463

2.848

11.043

6.276

49.5

87.0

25.8

45.4

33

380

78

Zimbabwe

4.653

1.800

12.963

6.376

35.9

73.0

13.9

28.2

33

~480

89

TOTAL

300.834

189.834

696.515

382.116

43.2

78.7

27.3

49.7

Notes. Abbreviations are as for Tables 2.1 and 2.2. Not included are Diego Garcia (largely depopulated by the UK and US for global warfare reasons) and the Seychelles.

2.9 Summary

Excess mortality (avoidable mortality) for a given country for a given period is the difference between the ACTUAL mortality and the deaths EXPECTED for a decently run, peaceful country with the same demographics. Using United Nations Population Division demographic data going back to 1950 (the 2002 Revision), it was possible to make base-line estimates of expected mortality for various demographically distinct groups. For many Third World countries the base-line mortality estimates clustered about 4 deaths per 1,000 of population. Excess mortality was calculated for all countries in the world in pentades (5 year periods) from 1950-2005 (actually from mid-1950-mid-2005) and the results were tabulated in various regional groupings together with corroborative and independent estimates of under-5 infant mortality and life expectancy, annual per capita income and adult literacy data. A useful comparative measure of excess mortality is obtained from the “post-1950 excess mortality/2000 population ratio” which averages as follows in increasing order for the major groupings: 2.7% (Overseas Europe) < 5.0% (Western Europe) < 7.5% (Eastern Europe) < 9.4% (Latin America and Caribbean) < 10.9% (East Asia) < 20.7% (Turkey, Iran and Central Asia) < 23.0 (Arab Middle East and North Africa) < 25.1 (South East Asia) < 27.3% (the Pacific) < 31.9% (South Asia) < 43.2% (non-Arab Africa). Post-1950 excess mortality increases with decreasing annual per capita income but excellent outcomes have been achieved in countries with relatively low per capita incomes of about $1,000-$2,000 (as compared to $38,000 for the US), namely Cuba, Fiji, the Maldives, Paraguay and Sri Lanka. Low excess mortality is associated with high adult literacy but very high post-1950 excess mortality can still occur in countries with adult literacy in excess of 80% e.g. Congo (Brazzaville), Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland and Zimbabwe. The post-1950 excess mortality correlates with war, occupation by First World countries and consequent increased disregard for the occupied by their rulers. The impact of foreign occupation is explored in subsequent Chapters.

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